Australian wheat exports to fall in 2009-10

 

 

The value of Australian wheat exports will fall this fiscal year ending June 30, 2010, with lower prices and a stronger currency more than offsetting increased production, the government's chief commodities forecaster said Tuesday.

 

Wheat exports this fiscal year are forecast at 14.6 million tonnes and valued at A$4.72 billion, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics said.

 

That compared with shipments of 13.41 million tonnes valued at A$5.03 billion last fiscal year, the bureau said in its quarterly Australian commodities outlook publication.

 

Australia is a major global exporter of wheat.

 

Australian wheat production, a key determinant of export availability, is forecast to rise to 22.7 million tonnes this crop year ending March 31, 2010, from actual output last crop year of 21.4 million tonnes last crop year, Abare reported, reiterating a forecast from its Crop Report issued September 15.

 

A large global crop and substantial carry-over stocks from last season have increased supplies this year, putting downward pressure on prices, it said.

 

Its world indicator price, US hard red winter wheat, FOB US Gulf of Mexico, is forecast to average US$230/tonne in 2009-10, down US$40 from the previous year.

 

The Australian net return on collective pool sales is forecast to average US$267/tonne this fiscal year, down from US$317/tonne last fiscal year, it said.

 

For the 2009-10 fiscal year, Abare projects world production at 662 million tonnes, consumption at 642 million tonnes, closing inventories at 183 million tonnes and global trade at 113 million tonnes.

 

For last fiscal year, it estimated production at 687 million tonnes, consumption at 641 million tonnes, closing inventories at 163 million tonnes and global trade at 136 million tonnes.