US sets for record corn crop in 2009

The US could have another record-setting corn crop in 2009, said Purdue Extension economist Chris Hurt.

The US Department of Agriculture's September forecast put potential production potential at 12.9 billion bushels, 194 million bushels more than the August forecast. That translates into a US yield forecast of 151.9 bushels per acre, 2.4 bushels higher than in the August forecast.

Large increases were predicted for Illinois, Kentucky, Michigan, Missouri and South Dakota.

For soy, the US crop is now projected at a record 3.245 billion bushels, 46 million bushels larger than the August forecast. The average US yield for soy is projected at 42.3 bushels, 0.6 bushels above the August forecast.

Indiana was the only Corn Belt state were soy yields were reduced, with a 2-bushel reduction from the August prediction, for an average yield of 43 bushels per acre.

With national corn yield estimates in the 160-bushel-per-acre range, that might mean lower prices at harvest and through the rest of the crop year, Hurt said.

World demand, the value of the dollar and the ultimate size of the US and South American crops will determine prices, Hurt said.

Hurt said the last three years were full of shortages to see shortages in the world market and prices had to be high to get end users to cut back. Big crops in the United States could mean prices have to be depressed to get more end users to come into the market. For now, it has tilted a little bit back to the old days of surplus production and lower prices to stimulate use, he said.