September 21, 2009

Conditions for wheat in Argentina have improved following increased rainfall this month, although the crop is still dry in some of the eastern area of the farm belt, the Agriculture Secretariat said in its weekly crop report Friday (September 18).

 

In the Bragado district of Buenos Aires province, "the state of the [wheat] crop is generally very good, notably improving since the showers during the first week of September," the Secretariat said.

 

However, some of the fields in Cordoba province were skipped by the showers and are in poor shape, according to the Secretariat.

 

About 2.8 million hectares were seeded with the grain this season, according to the Buenos Aires Cereals exchange. That marks a 40.5 percent drop in area from last season and is the lowest area on record.

 

The Buenos Aires exchange hasn't forecast production yet, but the Rosario Grain Exchange estimates 2009-10 wheat production of about 7.4 million tonnes. That would be down from 8.7 million tonnes in 2008-09, and down sharply from an average of 14.76 million tonnes over the previous five years.

 

With domestic demand pegged at 6.5 million tonnes by the government, just 900,000 tonnes of wheat are likely to be left over for export from the 2009-10 crop. The US Department of Agriculture is expecting Argentina to export 1.5 million tonnes of wheat and wheat flour from the 2009-10 crop.

 

Corn planting got a boost from the increased showers this week, but planted area is still likely to be down on the year, according to the Secretariat.

 

In the important corn district of Marcos Juarez in Cordoba province, planting kicked off over the weekend, with farmers applying good fertilizer levels, the Secretariat said.

 

"Wide-scale planting will kick off next week, particularly if forecast rainfall comes," the Secretariat said.

 

However, farmers are reducing area in Marcos Juarez, in many cases by as much as 35 percent to 40 percent on the year, according to the Secretariat.

 

According to the Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange, as of Wednesday, 8.7 percent of the forecast 1.875 million hectares had been seeded.

 

The Rosario Grain Exchange forecasts total corn planting of 2.3 million hectares, with 2009-10 production at about 16 million tonnes.

 

Half of that amount will likely be set aside by the government for domestic demand, leaving just 8 million tonnes available for export, according to the Rosario exchange. The USDA forecasts 7 million tonnes of exports from the 2009-10 corn crop.

 

Sunflower seed is progressing slowly, but is likely to get a boost from recent showers, according to the Secretariat.

 

As of Wednesday, 8.6 percent of the forecast 2.1 million hectares had been planted, according to the Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange.

 

The Rosario Grain exchange forecasts sunflower-seed production of 3.4 million tonnes, up from about three million tonnes last season when yields suffered due to drought.

 

Soy production is expected to rise sharply again next season.

 

Planting is likely to surge to between 19 million and 20 million hectares during the 2009-10 season, according to private analysts. That would shatter the record set during the 2008-09 season, when farmers seeded 16.6 million hectares with the oilseed.

 

The Rosario exchange forecasts 2009-10 soy planting of 18.5 million hectares, with production of 50 million tonnes.