September 19, 2007

 

USDA: Modest growth for 2007/08 world coarse grains output

 

 

World coarse grains production for 2007/08 is expected to reach 1.062 billion tonnes, up 2 million tonnes this month, according to the September Feed Outlook report of the US Department of Agriculture.

 

This modest increase masks a 7-million-tonne hike for US production and a 5-million-tonne decline in foreign output. The EU-27 marked the largest decline by 3.2 million tonnes to 135.0 million.

 

Forecast corn production was reduced 1.5 million tonnes, with reductions for Romania (-0.5 million), Bulgaria (-0.42 million), Hungary (-0.4 million), Spain (-0.3 million), and Italy (-0.2 million) more than offsetting small upward revisions to other EU countries.

 

Hot, dry growing conditions devastated much of the corn crops in Southeast Europe and that damage is becoming clearer as the plants mature.

 

The EU-27 barley production forecast is also down by 1.2 million tonnes this month to 57.3 million. The harvest is virtually complete, and country harvest reports are indicating reductions mostly caused by rain during the harvest.

 

Declines for France, Germany, and several others countries have more than offset an increase in Spain. EU-27 production forecasts for mixed grains and oats were also reduced this month.

 

Prospects for 2007/08 corn production in Argentina were reduced 1.5 million tonnes to 22.5 million due to falling prices of corn compared with oilseeds, moderating the expected increase in corn planted area. Corn harvested area is now forecast to increase 7 percent over instead of 14 percent.

 

China's 2007/08 corn production prospects were trimmed 1 million tonnes to 147 million due to hot, dry conditions in parts of the Northeast Corn Belt. Australia's 2007/08 barley crop projection was cut 1 million tonnes to 8 million as a dry, warm winter and early spring have reduced yield prospects. Forecast barley production for Turkey also fell by 0.8 million tonnes to 6.5 million as harvest reports indicated low yields caused by dryness.

 

However, these smaller reductions more than offset increases for Brazil and the former Soviet Union (FSU). Brazil's projected corn production increased by 1 million tonnes to 51 million because corn prices in Brazil have been boosted by strong exports to the EU-27, which prefers non-GMO corn.

 

Coarse grains production in the FSU was boosted 0.8 million tonnes to 53.3 million by a 0.5-million-tonne increase for Belarus (barley, rye, and oats) and an increase for oats in Russia.