September 18, 2012

Russia's September grain exports are likely to decline to 2.5 million-3.0 million tonnes as compared to 3.8 million tonnes in September 2011.

Arkady Zlochevsky, President of the Russian Grain Union, told a press briefing in Moscow Monday (Sep 17) that the grain union forecasts Russia's grain harvest this year at 72 million tonnes. He added that farmers would probably keep another five million tonnes of grain officially undeclared in the hope of selling the grain later, when prices rise. The 2012 harvest will be much lower than in 2011 when Russia harvested 94.2 million tonnes of grain. Grain harvest this year is seen lower than a year earlier due to drought.

As a result, grain exports will also be lower than in the previous marketing year. Zlochevsky said Russia's grain export potential in the current marketing year is 16-17 million tonnes. The country exported 27.2 million tonnes in the 2011-12 marketing year.

The figures quoted by Zlochevsky are higher than current estimates by the agriculture ministry, which expects Russia to harvest 70-75 million tonnes of grain this year and export 10-14 million tonnes.