Australia wheat crop outlook down to 20 million tonnes

Production estimates for Australia new wheat crop are heading toward 20 million metric tonnes, rather than to a forecast of 22.7 million tonnes issued Tuesday (September 15) by the government Australian Bureau of Agricultural & Resource Economics, according to the Perth-based marketing advisory service Profarmer Australia.

 

While Profarmer Thursday (September 17) said there is mounting concern about crops in Queensland and New South Wales, other analysts say conditions in southeast Australia and Western Australia - the state that usually accounts for 40 percent of national output - are improving, likely supporting Abare projections.

 

Profarmer said large areas of crop in northern New South Wales and Queensland are under severe pressure "with heavy yield losses expected without rain in the next two weeks." Crops in these areas continue to be sapped by hot windy weather after the hottest August on record, severely affecting yield potential.

 

Abare forecast and another of 22 million tonnes by Australian Crop Forecasters "appear to be at the top end of most trade estimates, which are drifting towards 20 million tonnes," according to Profarmers weekly newsletter.

 

Abare upgraded its forecast Tuesday from a June estimate of 22 million tonnes. Actual output last crop year ended March 31 was 21.4 million tonnes, about two-thirds of which was available for export, making Australia a major supplier to the global trade.

 

Southern and western wheat crops have been bolstered by good rainfall this week.

 

"Extremely beneficial rainfall has been recorded throughout most of South Australia, Victoria and southern New South Wales cropping regions over the past 48 hours," Luke Mathews, a commodity strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said in a note.

 

 

"We won't be too far off last year anyway, it looking very, very good," particularly with one or two more good rains, he told Dow Jones Newswires by telephone.

 

CBH received 12.3 million tonnes of winter grains, including 8.9 million tonnes of wheat, last crop year into its system of 200 upcountry storage sites and four coastal export terminals, the grower-owned company third-highest intake on record. Abare latest forecast pegged new crop wheat production in Western Australia at 8.74 million tonnes.

 

Tutt said achieving record production this year is unlikely.

 

"We just haven't got the base to get to that 14.7 million tonnes," record for total grains reached in 2003-04, he said.

 

That said, good rain this week has buoyed crop prospects, he said.

 

Most of the state wheatbelt has received 15 millimetres (mm) to 20 mm in the week ended Friday, according to Bureau of Meteorology data.

 

The rainfall means northern crops "can get home from here and anything on top of that will be a bonus, but we need more rain down south to finish things off," Tutt said.