September 18, 2009
CBOT soy rebuffed by trend-line resistance
Chicago Board of Trade November soy futures pushed right up to and challenged a downtrend line drawn from the August highs on the daily bar chart and then backed off.
This strong trend-line resistance now comes in at the US$9.70 a bushel level in November soy.
On Tuesday, November soy spiked to a two-week high of US$9.77 3/4, partly due to a frost forecast for the US corn belt next week. Since those gains could not be sustained as weather forecasts moderated, the soy market bears are again in near-term technical control as the five-week-old downtrend line on the daily bar chart has only been reinforced this week.
For the bean market bulls to regain fresh upside near-term technical momentum, they would have to push prices above the downtrend line and also above solid overhead technical resistance at US$9.80, basis November futures.
The next downside price objective for the soy bulls is pushing and closing November futures prices below major psychological support at US$9.00 a bushel.
