September 18, 2007

  

US Crop Progress Wrap: Corn harvest, soy maturity above average

 

 

The US corn harvest is ahead of schedule and soys are maturing at an above average pace, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) said Monday (September 17) afternoon in its weekly crop progress report.

 

Winter wheat planting continues to lag behind its average pace, but the delays aren't seen as a factor at this point, analysts said.

  

The USDA said 14 percent of the corn crop was harvested as of September 16, up from 8 percent last year and the five-year average of 9 percent.

 

The harvest is off to a good start, and the warm temperatures and light winds forecast for this week are ideal for the drying of fields and should allow the progress of the harvest to move at a favourable clip, said Shawn McCambridge, a senior grains analyst with Prudential Financial in Chicago.

 

In Illinois, 25 percent of the crop was harvested, up from 5 percent in 2006 and the five-year average of 7 percent.

 

In Iowa, 4 percent of the crop was harvested, up from 3 percent last year and the five-year average of 3 percent. In Indiana, 12 percent of the crop was harvested, up from 3 percent last year and the five-year average of 4 percent.

 

"Looking forward, based on weather conditions for the week, I would anticipate harvest progress advancing in the 20 percent range next week," McCambridge said.

 

The USDA said 64 percent of the crop was mature, up from 42 percent last week and 49 percent in 2006. The five-year average is 46 percent.

 

The development of the crop looks strong and the advanced maturity level should take the weather element out of the market, he said.

 

In Illinois, 86 percent of the crop was mature, compared with the average of 56 percent. Sixty-nine percent of the crop was mature in Iowa, up from the average of 51 percent, and 59 percent of the crop was mature in Indiana, up from the average of 42 percent.

 

Ninety six percent of the crop was dented, up from 90 percent last week and 96 percent last year. The five-year average is 90 percent.

 

The USDA rated 63 percent of the corn crop in good-to-excellent condition, up from 61 percent last week.

 

In Iowa, 72 percent of the crop was in good-to-excellent condition, up from 69 percent a week ago, according to the USDA. Illinois had 78 percent of its crop in good-to-excellent condition, unchanged form last week. In Indiana, 47 percent of the crop was rated good to excellent, up four percentage points from last week.

 

The USDA reported that 56 percent of the US soy crop was in good-to-excellent condition, matching the agency's rating from a week ago but down from 61 percent last year.

 

In Illinois, 55 percent of the crop was rated good to excellent, down one percentage point from a week ago. Indiana had 44 percent of its crop in good-to-excellent condition, up two percentage points from last week. In Iowa, 74% of the crop was in good-to-excellent condition, up two percentage points from last week.

 

The USDA said 55 percent of the crop was dropping leaves, up from 32 percent last week and 45 percent in 2006. The five-year average is 47 percent.

 

The unchanged ratings and above-average figure for the dropping of leaves illustrate that the higher-than-average maturity level is taking some weather concerns out of the market, said Jason Roose, an analyst with US Commodities in West Des Moines, Iowa.

 

"The ratings and the large percentage of crops in the northern belt that are turning yellow, shows those crops are done growing, and I would not be surprised to see soy prices backpedal in overnight action after rallying sharply on frost fears the past two trading days," Roose said.

 

Illinois had 59 percent of its crop dropping leaves, above the five-year average of 41 percent, and Iowa had 54 percent of its crop dropping leaves, slightly above the five-year average of 53 percent. In Indiana, 64 percent of the crop was dropping leaves, up from the five-year average of 50 percent, according to the USDA.

 

Nebraska had 28 percent of its crop dropping leaves, compared with the five-year average of 40 percent. Minnesota had 81 percent dropping leaves, well above the average of 53 percent, the USDA said.

 

The USDA said 14 percent of the winter wheat crop was planted, down from 17 percent last year and the five-year average of 20 percent.

 

Despite a behind-average pace in planting, seedings moved at a decent pace last week, said McCambridge.

 

However, "its difficult to quantify the impact of the harvest pace, as we don't know what the actual acreage is based on," he added.

 

"Is it based on last year's planted acreage or is it based on an assumption of a 10 percent or 15 percent increase in acreage from last year?" McCambridge said.

 

The USDA said 7 percent of the Kansas hard red winter wheat crop was planted, down from 12 percent in 2006 and the five-year average of 13%.

 

In Oklahoma, 12 percent of the crop was planted, down from 18 percent last year and the five-year average of 23 percent. In Nebraska, 35 percent of the crop was planted, above the 30 percent planted at the same time last year but down slightly from the five-year average of 37 percent.

 

Colorado was 24 percent complete, down from 27 percent in 2006 and the five-year average of 37 percent. Texas had 9 percent planted, well below the 21 percent seeded in 2006 and the five-year average of 26 percent.

 

Some areas like Texas, Oklahoma and part of Kansas are falling behind because of wet soil, but farmers aren't too concerned about waiting for fields to dry in the third week of September, McCambridge said.