September 17, 2014

As continual dry conditions in Australia caused local farmers to slaughter livestock at an escalating rate, a forecast by the country has anticipated a 1% rise for beef exports in 2014/15.

Still, sales are expected to top one million head for the first time. Previously, live cattle sales are pegged at 990,000 head.

With the US likely to be its biggest customer, Australia, the world's number three beef exporter, is expected to ship a total of 1.13 million tonnes in 2014/15, said the Australian Bureau of Agriculture, Resource Economics and Rural Sciences (ABARES).  The figure represents a rise from June's estimate of 1.12 million tonnes and just below 2013's record of 1.18 million tonnes.

ABARES expects the US to import 290,000 tonnes of Australian beef and Japan to buy 265,000 tonnes, up from a prior estimate of 270,000 tonnes for both countries. US demands have risen recently as herd in the country fell to its smallest in 63 years earlier in 2014 and local farmers are seeking to rebuild the numbers.

However, the scarcity of food and water remains a threat to the well-being of the Australian cattle herd which is set to decline to a five-year low of 27.1 million at the end of the 2014/15 season, reflecting two consecutive years of rising slaughter rates.

ABARES warned that the current seasonal condition may led to beef cattle dropping below the present forecast as slaughtering in 2013/14 hit a 35-year high of almost 9.5 million head, particularly in Queensland and northern New South Wales. The former, Australia's largest cattle producing state, has received less than half of the average rainfall over the last two years.