September 17, 2012

World's 2012-13 oilseed production down by 4.2 million tonnes

Global oilseed production is estimated at 453.1 million tonnes in 2012-13, down 4.2 million tonnes from last month's estimate.

According to the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report by USDA, the low production is mainly due to lower soy and cottonseed production.

As the Chinese producers shifted planting decisions toward corn the soy production of China is reduced by 0.5 million tonnes. The production of cottonseed in Brazil also reduced due to lower area planted to cotton as world prices have declined in recent weeks. Oilseed production in US for 2012-13 is projected at 82 million tonnes. The estimate is down 1.4 million from last month. In addition to the US projected soy production is reduced for Ukraine and Canada. Early harvest results for Ukraine indicate a lower yield in part reflecting unusually hot temperatures during the growing season.

Due to stronger domestic soymeal use the crush of soy is raised to 15 million bushels. Ending stocks are projected at 175 million bushels for 2011-12 which is down by 35 million. The exports are also down 20 million with reduced supplies for 2012-13 and is projected at 1.485 billion bushels says AG Professional in their report. The 2012-13 soymeal and oil price projections are unchanged this month.

The US season average soy price is projected at US$12.00 to US$14.00 per bushel. Soymeal and oil prices are projected at US$335 to US$365 per tonne and US$0.525 to US$0.565 per pound respectively.