September 16, 2009

Australia's winter grain production is projected to reach 36 million tonnes, up nearly 10 percent on the previous harvest, according to the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resources Economics (ABARE).

The forecast is also up 1.2 million tonnes from the June estimate, and comes despite unsatisfactory rainfall in crop regions.

Most crops in Western Australia, South Australia and Victoria are performing well, but winter crop prospects in Queensland and the northern New South Wales grain belt have been adversely affected by below-average winter rainfall.

Crops in southern New South Wales are in urgent need of good rains, with some crops having already failed and the yield potential of most others on a rapid decline.

ABARE deputy executive director Terry Sheales said rainfall during spring was crucial for crops in all regions to reach current potential.

Of the major winter grains, wheat production is forecast to be 22.7 million tonnes, up from the June forecast of 22 million tonnes and 1.3 million tonnes more than the previous year, Sheales said.

Barley production is projected to increase 1.1 million tonnes to 7.9 million tonnes. Canola production is forecast to drop 200,000 tonnes to 1.7 million tonnes.

Summer crop plantings were still several months away but total acreage is likely to drop five percent due to continued lack of irrigation water, Sheales said.

The below-average winter rainfall in major summer crop regions has also adversely affected the outlook for grain sorghum plantings, Sheales said.