September 16, 2008

USDA lowered its pork production forecast for 2008 due to a slower-than-expected pace of hog slaughter and lighter carcass weights in the third quarter.

The 2008 commercial pork production was pegged at US$42.14 billion, down from US$42.28 billion projected in August.

For the 2009 commercial pork production forecast, it was reduced to US$41.25 billion from US$41.33 billion in August as producers are now expected to market hogs at lighter carcass weights.

USDA estimated average hog prices (live equivalent 51-52 percent lean) for the third quarter of 2008 at US$100.57 to US$102.26 per hundredweight, reflecting strong demand. It forecast prices will average US$87.91 to US$89.7 for the year, up US$1.8 on each end from August.

USDA left its average hog price forecast for 2009 unchanged at US$91.42 to US$100.57 per hundredweight.