September 15, 2010

World coarse grain production expected to decrease by 10 million tonnes

Global coarse grain production in 2010/11 is projected to be 1,097.7 million tonnes, down 10.3 million this month.

While the largest decline is in the US, foreign production is down 4.9 million tonnes, almost as much as in the US. The largest reductions in foreign production prospects are for the EU, down 3.5 million tonnes, and for Russia, reduced 1.2 million.

Foreign corn production prospects are down 0.3 million tonnes this month to 491.8 million. EU corn production prospects are reduced 1.2 million tonnes to 54.7 million. France and Germany forecast area and yields are lower, while Italy, Austria, Spain, and Greece face reduced yield prospects. These reductions more than offset improved prospects in Romania and some small producing countries.

There is also a small reduction in corn production prospects this month for North Korea as excessive rains have trimmed both area and yield prospects. These declines are partly offset by increased prospects for Canada and Mexico, each up 0.5 million tonnes this month due to improved yields. In Canada, production prospects in Ontario are good as most areas have enjoyed favourable temperatures and precipitation. In Mexico, some areas along the Pacific coast have had flooding, but rains have been generally good and water supplies in reservoirs have been favourable for irrigation.

There was also a significant revision for Brazil's 2009/10 corn crop, up 1.8 million tonnes to a record 56.1 million as the safrina (second, dry-season) crop was bigger than expected.