September 15, 2009

A production forecast for Australia's 2009-10 wheat crop was upgraded a little Tuesday to 22.7 million tonnes from a June estimate of 22 million tonnes, according to the government's chief commodities forecaster, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural & Resource Economics, or Abare.

The forecast is comfortably within a range of industry expectations.

If the forecast comes to pass, wheat output this crop year ending March 31, 2010, will rise 6.1 percent from an actual 21.4 million tonnes produced last year, according to Abare's quarterly Crop Report.

Barley production this crop year is now estimated at 7.9 million tonnes, up from a June estimate of 7.7 million tonnes and up from actual output of 6.8 million tonnes in 2008-09.

Wheat and barley are the major components of an estimate for total production from winter crops this crop year of 36 million tonnes, up from a June projection of 34.8 million tonnes and up from actual output last crop year of 33.1 million tonnes, it said.

Abare Deputy Executive Director Terry Sheales said the outlook for winter crops is variable across the nation, reflecting patchy winter rainfall.

Rainfall in spring is crucial for crops in all regions to reach current potential, he said in a statement.