September 15, 2009

 

CBOT Soy Review on Monday: Closes mixed; traders eye weather

 

 

Chicago Board of Trade soy futures closed mixed Monday amid some positioning and weather talk, although the September contract went off the board sharply lower.

 

September soy expired down 59 1/2 cents at US$9.25 a bushel, while November soy closed up 6 cents at US$9.09. December soymeal closed up US$3.30 at US$278.80 per short tonne, and December soyoil ended down 11 points at 33.79 cents a pound.

 

There was some scattered talk about the potential for frost late next week, although some traders didn't give it much heed. The soy crop is vulnerable to a frost or freeze because development is behind normal.

 

Frost is "in the back of their heads," Tim Hannagan, analyst for PFG Best, said about traders. "They're really not going to respond to this (frost talk) until late Wednesday, but probably not until Thursday or Friday," he said.

 

A "complex forecast exists next week as a cooler pattern" may develop in the central or eastern U.S., according to an updated outlook from private weather firm T-Storm Weather. However, "the threat for a damaging frost remains low," the firm said.

 

Commodity funds bought an estimated 2,000 contracts.

 

Nearby September soy expired sharply lower as traders got out of the market ahead of expiration. Volume was thin in the spot month, traders said.

 

In other news, there was chatter about a trade spat between the U.S. and China amid worries it could affect Chinese demand for U.S. soy. China is the world's biggest importer of U.S. soy.

 

Hannagan said he didn't expect the dispute to have a long-term impact on Chinese demand for U.S. soy. Concerns about trade grew after China indicated during the weekend that it would restrict U.S. imports of chicken and auto products after Washingtonne slapped punitive sanctions on Chinese tire imports last week.

 

 

Soy Products

 

CBOT soy product futures finished mixed, with September soymeal sinking ahead of expiration. September soymeal expired down US$28 at US$310 a short tonne, while September soyoil expired down 21 points at 33.15 cents a pound.

 

The products tracked CBOT soy and outside markets, traders said. There were some bearish signals from lower crude oil and a firmer dollar, a trader said.

 

In other news, the soy crush rate in the National Oilseed Processors Association's monthly soy crush report was 112.6 million bushels, slightly above trade expectations of 110.8 million bushels. Soyoil stocks were 2.52 billion pounds, below trade expectations of 2.624 billion.