September 15, 2009

China National Grain and Oils Information Centre (CNGOIC), a think tank of the State Administration of Grain, released its latest forecast on China's supply of soy, rapeseed, rapeseed oil, soymeal, rapeseed meal and protein meal in the crop year of 2008-09.

 

The latest forecast from the CNGOIC said the country will increase its new soy supply to 56.15 million tonnes in the crop year of 2008-09, including 15.55 million tonnes from the domestic supply and 40.6 million tonnes from imports.

 

The centre estimated that soy consumption by oil crushing plants will reach 41.7 million tonnes in 2008-09, an increase of 3.5 million tonnes over the previous crop year, which includes 2.2 million tonnes of domestic soy and 39.5 million tonnes of imported soy.

 

It also forecasted that China's new soy supply in 2009-10 will amount to 52.5 million tonnes, with 14.5 million tonnes from the domestic supply and 38 million tonnes from imports.

 

Meanwhile, soy consumption for oil crushing purpose is estimated to reach 43.5 million tonnes in 2009-10, a rise of 1.8 million tonnes over the previous year, including six million tonnes of domestic soy and 37.5 million tonnes of imported soy.

 

On the other hand, China's new rapeseed supply will increase to 14.12 million tonnes in the crop year of 2008-09, including 12.1 million tonnes from the domestic supply and 2.02 million tonnes from imports.

 

The CNGOIC estimated that rapeseed consumption by oil crushing plants will reach 12.9 million tonnes in 2008-09, up 2.15 million tonnes over the previous crop year, including 11 million tonnes of domestic rapeseed and 1.9 million tonnes of imported rapeseed.

 

It also forecasted that China's new rapeseed supply in 2009-10 will amount to 15.1 million tonnes, with 13.5 million tonnes coming from the domestic supply and 1.6 million tonnes from imports.

 

Meanwhile, rapeseed consumption for oil crushing purpose is estimated to reach 14.1 million tonnes in 2009-10, a rise of 1.2 million tonnes over the previous year, including 12.5 million tonnes of domestic rapeseed and 1.6 million tonnes of imported rapeseed.

 

As for new rapeseed oil supply, it will be raised to 5.04 million tonnes in the crop year of 2008-09, including 4.66 million tonnes from the domestic supply and 380,000 tonnes from imports.

 

The CNGOIC estimated that China's rapeseed oil demand will reach 4.19 million tonnes in 2008-09, including 4.18 million tonnes for domestic consumption, a fall of 20,000 tonnes from the previous crop year, as well as 10,000 tonnes for exports.

 

It also forecasted that China's new rapeseed oil supply in 2009-10 will amount to 5.27 million tonnes, with 5.07 million tonnes from the domestic supply and 200,000 tonnes from imports.

 

Meanwhile, the rapeseed oil demand is estimated to reach 4.16 million tonnes in 2009-10, with 4.15 million tonnes for domestic consumption, down 30,000 tonnes from the previous year, as well as 10,000 tonnes for exports.

 

For new soymeal supply, it will be increased to 33.01 million tonnes in the crop year of 2008-09, which includes 32.79 million tonnes from the domestic supply and 220,000 tonnes from imports.

 

The CNGOIC estimated that soymeal consumption for feedstock purpose will approach 30 million tonnes in 2008-09, an increase of 1.4 million tonnes over the previous crop year, and the exports will reach 1.15 million tonnes. The total domestic consumption is estimated at 38.18 million tonnes, an on-year rise of 2.04 million tonnes.

 

It also forecasted that China's new soymeal supply in 2009-10 will amount to 34.55 million tonnes, with 34.3 million tonnes being produced domestically.

 

Meanwhile, soymeal consumption for feedstock purpose is estimated to reach 32.5 million tonnes, up 2.5 million tonnes over the previous year, while exports are expected to approach 800,000 tonnes. The total domestic consumption is predicted to reach 34.25 million tonnes, an on-year increase of 2.17 million tonnes.

 

As for new rapeseed meal supply, it is expected to increase 8.1 million tonnes in the crop year of 2008-09, including 7.79 million tonnes from the domestic supply and 310,000 tonnes from imports.

 

The CNGOIC estimated that the domestic rapeseed meal demand will reach 7.64 million tonnes in 2008-09, up 980,000 tonnes over the previous year, which includes 7.53 million tonnes for domestic consumption and 110,000 tonnes for exports.

 

It also forecasted that China's new rapeseed meal supply in 2009-10 will amount to 8.74 million tonnes, with 8.54 million tonnes coming from the domestic production and 200,000 tonnes from imports.

 

Meanwhile, the domestic rapeseed meal demand will total 8.43 million tonnes, a rise of 790,000 tonnes over the previous year, including 8.33 million tonnes for domestic consumption and 100,000 tonnes for exports.

 

For protein meal output, it will reach 48.87 million tonnes in the crop year of 2008-09, an increase of 4.18 million tonnes over the previous year, according to the centre.

 

China's protein meal imports are estimated at 530,000 tonnes in 2008-09, an on-year rise of 120,000 tonnes.

 

The CNGOIC estimated that protein meal consumption for feedstock purpose will approach 44.38 million tonnes in 2008-09, up 2.29 million tonnes or 5.44 per cent over the previous year and the exports will reach 1.42 million tonnes, a rise of 560,000 tonnes year-on-year.

 

It also forecasted that China's protein meal output in 2009-10 will amount to 50.42 million tonnes, an increase of 1.55 million tonnes over the previous year while the imports will approach 460,000 tonnes, an on-year fall of 70,000 tonnes.

 

Meanwhile, protein meal consumption for feedstock purpose is estimated to reach 46.85 million tonnes, up 2.47 million tonnes or 5.6 per cent over the previous year, and the exports are estimated at 1.06 million tonnes, down 360,000 tonnes year-on-year.