September 14, 2009

The soy crush rate in the National Oilseed Processors Association's monthly soy crush report is expected to show a decline for August to near 110.8 million bushels due to tight soy supplies, according to a survey of industry analysts.

Estimates for the report ranged from as low as 106 million bushels to as high as 119 million bushels. In July, the crush was measured at 120.9 million bushels, and analysts said the crush in August would decline by about 10 million bushels.

The NOPA report includes figures only from member processors.

Analysts attributed the expected decline in crushing activity to limited soy availability and poor margins.

Crushers experienced much downtime in August due to the lack of soy in the cash pipeline as the 2008-09 marketing year drew to a close, said Mario Balletto, analyst with Citigroup in Chicago.

However, some analysts see only a modest reduction in crushing from July, with Prudential Bache Commodities' senior oilseed analyst Anne Frick, projecting the crush at 119 million bushels.

Meanwhile, NOPA soyoil stocks in August are expected to decline to 2.624 billion pounds from 2.804 billion pounds in July. Estimates ranged from as low as 2.540 billion pounds to as high as 2.704 billion pounds.

Analysts looked for stocks to drop from July, with a slower crushing pace and decent export demand serving as the catalysts for the decline, analysts said.

Slow domestic offtake of soyoil was seen continuing to limit reductions in soyoil stocks.