September 14, 2009

 

CBOT Corn Outlook on Monday: Down 2-4 cents on corrective tone; crop weighs

 

 

Chicago Board of Trade corn futures are expected to open lower Monday following an overnight correction as benign weather and concerns about a trade dispute with China weigh, traders said.

 

Corn is called 2 to 4 cents lower. In overnight trading, September corn was up 2 3/4 cents to US$3.11 3/4 per bushel and December corn was up 4 cents to US$3.15 3/4.

 

Weather remains benign, and bearish for the market, traders said, as forecasts call for warm weather this week. The potential for a frost late in the two-week forecast supported trade briefly overnight but was later disregarded, a trader said.

 

The market could feel pressure on outside markets depending on the reaction to a trade dispute that has arisen after the U.S. slapped a tariff on tires made in China.

 

"Markets, especially corn, held up very well (overnight) given new developments in the trade between the U.S. and China - a new development that has allowed most stocks in Asia to fall and the U.S. dollar to find support," said Mike Zuzolo, analyst for Global Commodity Analytics and Consulting in a morning commentary.

 

Still, Zuzolo said the news could give stocks and commodities more downside risk.

 

A floor trader said overnight losses in corn were mostly just a correction from Friday's trade. A large crop is keeping a lid on the market, and the benign weather is fueling expectations that "a big crop gets bigger."

 

In export news, the U.S. Department of Agriculture announced export sales of 419,000 to Mexico on Monday.

 

In international news, corn output in Jilin province, China's biggest grower, is likely to fall by more than 30% this year because of a drought, the Futures Daily reported Monday, citing findings from a recent field trip by a group of surveyors.

 

Jilin's output in 2009 is estimated to fall by around 7 million metric tonnes from last year's 21 million tonnes, it said.

 

The next upside price objective is to push December prices above solid technical resistance at US$3.37 1/2 a bushel, a technical analyst said. The next downside price objective for the bears is to push and close prices below major psychological support at US$3.00 a bushel.

 

First resistance for December corn is seen at Friday's high of US$3.20 1/4 and then at US$3.25., the technical analyst said. First support is seen at US$3.15 and then at US$3.10.