September 14, 2009

Reports of record-high crop yields are filtering in, as US farmers begin gathering their annual autumn harvest with combines working in fields as far north as southern sections of Illinois.

 

The soy crop in northwestern Mississippi is "15 percent to 20 percent than last year's record yield...corn yields are very near to the last couple years and very good in general," reported FCStone. "Bean yields will be a record, by a mile," averaging as much as 75 bushels per acre.

 

Although the US Department of Agriculture has yet to begin issuing official estimates of corn/soy harvest progress, individual state crop updates indicate that some 650 million bushels of corn, 115 million bushels of grain sorghum and 30 million bushels of new-crop soy have already been picked nationwide.

 

Yield reports have varied widely in some areas, dependent on when the fields were planted, their soil type and the amount of rain received.

 

In Louisiana, "farmers are harvesting corn, and yields vary dramatically," said LSU AgCenter extension associate Rob Ferguson. "Some farmers are getting nearly 200 bushels to the acre - near record levels - while others are seeing yields as low as 50 bushels to the acre."

 

Corn harvest is already 90 percent done in Louisiana and 60 percent to 67 percent complete in such states as Georgia, Mississippi, South Carolina, and Texas. Almost a quarter of the 2009 corn crop has been cut in such states as North Carolina and Oklahoma, with progress approaching 40 percent in Arkansas, as well.

 

"Supposedly the southern corn crop is better than average, with some yields into the 200 bushel category," said Rich Balvanz of AMS Commodities.

 

Picking has even begun in southern parts of Illinois, which is expected to be the nation's second-largest corn-producing state this season.

 

The "first two loads of new corn [were] dumped in our elevator on Sept. 8," one Pike County, Illinois source told MF Global analyst Rich Feltes.

 

Early corn yields from southern Illinois - reported at 150-190 bushels per acre - were described as "better than expected."

 

The soy harvest is far less advanced, estimated at 35 percent complete in Texas, 28 percent finished in Louisiana, 14 percent done in Mississippi, 7 percent complete in Georgia and 3 percent finished in Arkansas.

 

"Early soy yields from Arkansas and Mississippi are coming in 10 bushels per acre higher than last year," reported Ed Dugan of Top Third Ag Marketing.

 

Robert Goodson, extension agent in Phillips County, Ark., estimates that about 5 percent of the 249,000 acres planted to soy in his county have been harvested. He said yields are running from 18 to 65 bushels an acre, with an average of 45 bushels an acre.

By contrast, Ron Levy, LSU AgCenter soy specialist, said early harvested beans in Louisiana are showing the effects of a dry spring, producing yields in the teens, which is far below their normal 30-40 bushel average.

 

"A lot of these beans that were early went through the worst part of the drought," Levy said. "We're seeing late-season disease issues in there - quality issues and yield losses."

 

Despite the variability in initial field reports, Feltes said that overall, early yield updates have been, "remarkably consistent in reporting better-than-expected yields. One can be fooled by early yield returns, but our experience is that first yield reports set the tone on perceived crop size and price."

 

Feltes predicts that reports of record southern bean yields will continue to weigh on the cash market until major producing areas in the Midwest begin picking in late September.

 

"Meanwhile, early corn test cuttings in the Midwest are big and a more reliable precursor of later yields, making corn a tough buy for specs and end-users, until corn harvest is well advanced," he concluded.

 

The USDA Friday forecast that US farmers will bring in a record large soy crop of 3.245 billion bushels this fall, while also producing their second-largest corn harvest - of nearly 13 billion bushels - as well. Grain sorghum production is pegged at just below 390 million bushels.