September 14, 2006

Strategie Grains lowers estimates for EU grain crop

Strategie Grains lowered its estimate again for the 2006-07 EU grain crop in its monthly report Thursday to 244.6 million tonnes, down 4.4 million tonnes from its August forecast and down 5 percent from last year's crop.

The reduction was led by secondary cereals such as rye, which are now forecast down 2.25 million tonnes. Corn is estimated to be down 0.94 million tonne while soft wheat is down 0.69 million tonnes and barley down 0.58 million tonne.

Despite an upward revision for the UK harvest, it was not enough to offset the declines in France, forecast down 0.4 million tonne, and Poland, forecast down 0.33 million tonne.

The downward revisions take into account the impact of bad weather conditions on yields during harvest time, particularly in northern and eastern European countries, the monthly analytical report said.

The bad weather also led to a deterioration of quality, especially in Poland, the report added. Problems with grain quality have been reported in all of these countries."

Strategie Grains also forecast a cut in EU corn output due to late rainfall.

EU barley forecast was revised down by 0.84 million ton to 27.98 million tonnes, with reductions in Denmark, Netherlands, Scandinavia, Poland, the Baltic countries, Czech Republic and France. However, the forecast for winter barley was revised up by 0.26 million ton to 26.52 million tonnes.

The report said EU barley production should still be higher than last year at 54.5 million tonnes compared to 53.2 million tonnes in 2005-06.

EU corn production was revised down to 45.5 million tonnes, down 0.94 million from last month's estimate.