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September 13, 2016
                                           
China Lysine Weekly: Prices plunge amid tough competition (week ended Sep 12, 2016)
 
An eFeedLink Exclusive
 
 
Price summary
 
Prices fell sharply.
 
Price quotes of 98.5-percent lysine dropped to the range of RMB8.50-8.80/kg. Average prices were significantly lower by RMB0.75/kg at RMB8.60/kg.
                                                   
Price quotes of 70-percent lysine were stable in the range of RMB5.40-5.60/kg.
 
For imported 98.5-percent lysine, transacted prices slid to RMB10.40-10.90/kg.
 

Weekly transacted prices of imported lysine in China (RMB/kg)

Provinces

City/Municipality

Price as of Sep 12
(RMB/kg)

Price as of Sep 5
(RMB/kg)

Price change
(RMB/kg)

Guangdong

Guangzhou

8.80

9.50

-0.70

Sichuan

Chengdu

8.80

9.60

-0.70

Shandong

Jinan

8.50

9.20

-0.70

Henan

Zhengzhou 

8.50

9.20

-0.70

Liaoning

Shenyang

8.50

9.20

-0.70

-

Beijing

8.50

9.50

-1.00

-

Average

8.60

9.35

-0.75

         

Weekly prices of imported lysine in China (RMB/kg)

Provinces

City/Municipality

Price as of Sep 12
(RMB/kg)

Price as of Sep 5
(RMB/kg)

Price change
(RMB/kg)

Guangdong

Guangzhou

10.90

11.60

-0.70

Sichuan

Chengdu

10.70

11.40

-0.70

Shandong

Jinan

10.70

11.40

-0.70

Henan

Zhengzhou 

10.90

11.60

-0.70

Liaoning

Shenyang

10.40

11.10

-0.70

-

Beijing

10.65

11.65

-1.00

-

Average

10.71

11.46

-0.75

Prices are for reference only.
RMB1=US$0.1497 (Sep 13)

 

Market analysis
 
Prices of 98.5-percent plummeted as supplies increased while producers who halted operation during August resumed production, and cut prices with stocks expanding. However, not all producers lifted prices over the week. In particular, producers of 70-percent lysine stood firm while supplies stayed limited.
 
Overall, prices of lysine tumbled a whopping 8% for domestic products and 5.4% for imported ones.
 
In Europe, price quotes were in the range of EUR1.37-1.40/kg. For Chinese products, prices for November/ December deliveries were at EUR1.24-1.27/kg.
 
 
Market forecast  
            
Although lysine prices are less likely to drop drastically following the recent week's plummet, the market is expected to be weak amid strong competition. Prices of 70-percent lysine will likely succumb under pressure.
 
The sharp cut in lysine prices is a reflection of excess capacity of the industry, which is especially pronounced while hog feed demand is limited due to low inventories. During July and August, when producers adopted the strategy of halting operation to service facilities as well as avoid vicious competition, the market remained stable. However, now that producers resume production, the availability of lysine will increase substantially, exerting pressure on the market in the longer term.
 
 

 


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