September 12, 2007

 

US Crop Progress Wrap: Corn harvest is ahead of schedule

 

 

The US corn harvest is ahead of schedule and soybeans are developing at a quick pace, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) said Monday afternoon in its weekly crop progress report.

 

However, early winter wheat planting is lagging at a time of high anxiety about shrinking world supplies.

 

The USDA said 8 percent of the corn crop was harvested as of September 9, up from 5 percent last year and the five-year average of 5 percent. The pace of harvest should generally meet market expectations, said Mike Zuzolo, analyst with Risk Management Commodities in Lafayette, Indiana.

 

In Illinois, 12 percent of the crop was harvested, up from 2 percent in 2006 and the five-year average of 2 percent. The rapid pace could be "a little bit bearish on the corn market," Zuzolo said.

 

In Iowa, 2 percent of the crop was harvested, up from 1 percent last year and the five-year average of 1 percent. In Indiana, 5 percent of the crop was harvested, up from 1 percent last year and the five-year average of 1 percent.

 

The USDA said 42 percent of the crop was mature, up from 25 percent last week and 32 percent in 2006. The five-year average is 29 percent.

 

In Illinois, 68 percent of the crop was mature, compared to the average of 35 percent. Forty-one percent of the crop was mature in Iowa, up from the average of 28 percent, and 41 percent of the crop was mature in Indiana, up from the average of 25 percent.

 

Ninety percent of the crop was dented, up from 79 percent last week and 89 percent last year. The five-year average is 81 percent.

 

The USDA rated 61 percent of the corn crop in good-to-excellent condition, up from 59 percent last week. However, condition ratings are a "non-factor" in market activity because harvest is already underway, Zuzolo said.

 

In Iowa, 69 percent of the crop was in good-to-excellent condition, up from 68 percent a week ago, according to the USDA. Illinois had 78 percent of its crop in good-to-excellent, up from 77 percent last week. In Indiana, 43 percent of the crop was rated good to excellent, down one percentage point from last week.

  

The USDA reported that 56 percent of the US soybean crop was in good-to-excellent condition, matching the agency's rating from a week ago but down from 60 percent last year.

 

In Illinois, 56 percent of the crop was rated good to excellent, up one percentage point from a week ago. Indiana had 42 percent of its crop in good-to-excellent condition, down one percentage point from last week. In Iowa, 72 percent of the crop was in good-to-excellent condition, down from one percentage point from last week.

 

In Nebraska, 81 percent of the crop was rated good to excellent, up from 77 percent last week. In Minnesota, 54 percent of the crop was in good-to-excellent condition, up from 52 percent a week ago.

 

The USDA said 32 percent of the crop was dropping leaves, up from 14 percent last week and 25 percent in 2006. The five-year average is 25 percent.

 

"Beans are coming along as fast as corn," Zuzolo said. "We can expect an early bean harvest along with corn as long as the rains don't come in."

 

Illinois had 35 percent of its crop dropping leaves, above the five-year average of 19 percent, and Iowa had 25 percent of its crop dropping leaves, slightly above the five-year average of 24 percent. In Indiana, 41 percent of the crop was dropping leaves, up from the five-year average of 27 percent, according to the USDA.

 

Nebraska had 7 percent of its crop dropping leaves, compared to the five-year average of 16 percent. Minnesota had 45 percent dropping leaves, well above the average of 25 percent, the USDA said.

  

The USDA said 6 percent of the winter wheat crop was planted, down from 8 percent last year and the five-year average of 10 percent. The trade will be looking closely at the progress of wheat seedings amid historically tight ending stocks and fears about production problems in Australia, Zuzolo said.

 

The slower-than-normal planting pace in Kansas, the country's top wheat-producing state, is "noteworthy," Zuzolo said. The USDA said 2 percent of the state's hard red winter wheat crop was planted, down from 4 percent in 2006 and the five-year average of 4 percent.

 

"I would suspect that might garner some attention and that might be a little bit friendly for new crop July wheat," Zuzolo said.

 

Planting in some of the southern Plains states has been delayed due to wetness, Zuzolo said.

 

In Oklahoma, 5 percent of the crop was planted, down from 8 percent last year and the five-year average of 11 percent. In Nebraska, 16 percent of the crop was planted, matching the progress at this point last year but down slightly from the five-year average of 17 percent.

 

Colorado was at 5 percent complete, down from 7 percent in 2006 and the five-year average of 16 percent. Texas had 2 percent planted, well below the 11 percent seeded in 2006 and the five-year average of 15 percent.