September 11, 2009

 

CBOT Soy Review on Thursday: Mixed; consolidate ahead of USDA report

 

 

Soy futures on the Chicago Board of Trade ended mixed Thursday, as the market consolidated ahead of Friday's U.S. Department of Agriculture crop reports.

 

CBOT September settled 12 cents higher at US$9.73 1/2 per bushel, and November soy finished two cents lower at US$9.26 1/2 per bushel. In pit trades, speculative fund selling was estimated at 1,000 lots in soy.

 

September soymeal settled US$0.20 higher at US$349.00 per short tonne, and December soymeal ended US$0.20 higher at US$285.50. December soyoil finished three points lower at 34.25 cents per pound.

 

Position-squaring heading into Friday's crop reports was a featured attraction, with traders taking a cautious approach amid the wide range of analyst estimates for the report, a CBOT floor broker said.

 

The lack of a strong outside financial market presence added to the subdued atmosphere. Bearish weather conditions and crop potential remained key factors keeping a defensive undertonnee in the market.

 

However, solid underlying demand and the need for the 2009 crop to make it into October without a killing frost in order to reach its potential provided enough uncertainty to limit downside risks.

 

The USDA is scheduled to release its September crop report Friday at 8:30 a.m. EDT (1230 GMT). A survey of 22 analysts produced an average estimate for a crop size of 3.256 billion bushels with a yield of 42.4 bushels per acre. The averages ranged from 3.186 billion to 3.309 billion bushels for production and 41.5 to 43.1 bushels for yields.

 

The USDA is also scheduled to release its weekly export sales report Friday at 8:30 a.m. EDT. Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires estimate soy sales for the week ended Sept. 3 to be in a range of 300,000 to 500,000 metric tonnes. Soymeal export sales are seen between 50,000 and 175,000 tonnes, while soyoil sales are pegged between 10,000 and 30,000 tonnes.

 

The DTN Meteorlogix Weather forecast for the U.S. Midwest features variable temperatures during the next five days. Values will range from slightly below normal to slightly above normal. This pattern will generally be favorable to crop progress in soy areas; however, some slowing of progress is likely when temperatures turn cooler.

 

The general temperature pattern for the central U.S. remains free of any freezing levels during the next 10 days. Values through Sept. 20 will mostly range near to above normal, Meteorlogix forecasts.

 

 

Soy Products

 

Soy product futures ended narrowly mixed, struggling through choppy, two-sided trading sessions. The products were in consolidative modes, as traders took wait-and-see approaches in front of Friday's crop reports, analysts said. Soy production is expected to reach record levels, but its final yield is tied to uncertain September weather, and that was enough to keep traders cautious.

 

December oil share was 37.47%, while the November/December soy crush ended at 78 1/4 cents.