September 11, 2006

 

Brazil's wheat crop damage may be irreversible

 

 

Strong winds, freezing temperatures and morning frost destroyed at least 15 percent of the wheat crop in Rio Grande do Sul this week, according to preliminary state government estimates, and much of that may be unrecoverable.

 

"The wheat that was in its grain-forming phase will not come back under better weather conditions," said Odilone Soares Dacosta, an agronomist at the state's farm assistance agency Emater.

 

Dacosta said there are no official estimates yet, but expects at least 15 percent of the crop will be lost and as much as 40 percent is a possibility.

 

Rio Grande do Sul is Brazil's second leading wheat producer.

 

In the 2006 season, state wheat growers planted roughly 950,000 hectares of wheat with a productive capacity of 1,800 kilograms per hectare.

 

"In a worst case scenario, we're looking at yields barely over 1,000 kilogrammes per hectare because of the late cold," Dacosta said.

 

On Tuesday, an agronomist at a mid-sized cooperative in the northwest corner of Rio Grande do Sul said as much as 80 percent of the crop was ruined.

 

"I don't have an exact number yet, but a lot of those plants were in their final flowering phase and are no longer recoverable," said Airton Zalemena, an agronomist at Cootricampo. Cootricampo has 25,000 hectares of wheat fields.

 

An Antarctic cold front brought light snowfall in parts of Rio Grande do Sul and two days of frost in both Rio Grande do Sul and parts of Parana, the leading wheat producing state. The Secretary of Agriculture in Parana was unavailable for comment on possible wheat crop damage.

 

Most of Parana's wheat is planted in the centre-west and north. The northern part of the state didn't see temperatures below zero Celsius this week and most of the wheat there is mature, and ready for harvest. But centre-west and southern wheat growers tend to plant late in order to avoid winter frosts in July and early August.

 

"It's rare you get a cold this severe in September. Any farmer who thought they were free of winter cold by planting late got a rude awakening," said Marcilio Saiki, an agronomist for Coamo, southern Brazil's largest farm cooperative. Saiki said that preliminary damage assessments put losses between 20 percent and 30 percent, especially for immature plants.

 

On Friday, Brazil's Census Bureau (IBGE) lowered the country's wheat crop estimate to 3.4 million metric tonnes, 6.2 percent less than their previous estimate in July. The numbers were calculated before the current frost.

 

Brazil harvested more than 5.8 million tonnes in 2005, according to the Agriculture Ministry.

 

Temperatures have returned to historic averages in the south, with lows around 10 degrees Celsius.

 

Brazil wheat farmers plant wheat to generate income for soy crop inputs such as fertiliser and agrochemicals. Most of Brazil's wheat sources are imported from Argentina. Brazil is considering lowering trade tariffs on wheat imports to allow for more wheat price competition from Argentine competitors like the US and Canada. A decision is expected in mid-October.