September 9, 2013

 

China may import 20-30 million tonnes of corn annually

 

 

In order to cover growing supply shortages, China could import 20 million to 30 million tonnes of corn a year, as much as four times of current levels.

 

This could be around a quarter of globally traded corn and up to twice as much as Japan buys, an advantage to exporters like the US, Ukraine and Argentina.

 

The head of the rural department at the State Council's Development and Research Centre, Xu Xiaoqing, didn't give a timeframe, his comments to a conference are another sign that China is relaxing its policy of being self-sufficient in the feed grain.

 

The think tank, an agency of the country's cabinet, doesn't decide policy but does directly advise and issue policy recommendations to Chinese leaders.

 

According to Xu there would be no problem importing 20-30 million tonnes of corn and the country can maintain basic self-sufficiency and whenever there is a shortfall, they could easily import but should keep self-sufficiency in staple grains of wheat and rice.

 

In 2013-14, imports are expected to rise to seven million tonnes, 3.3% of China's total domestic output of 211 million tonnes.

 

Xu's comments reflect a wider debate in government about the country's food security goals in the light of soaring demand, rapid urbanisation, declining farmland and a shortage of agricultural labour.

 

Reversing his 2012 vow that China would not allow itself to become dependent on foreign supplies, Agriculture minister Han Changfu told state media that corn imports would have to rise gradually in order to meet feed demand.

 

Xu said that the country could tweak its grain security strategy by allowing its corn self-sufficiency rate to fall to around 80%.

 

China has long vowed to maintain a 95% rate of self-sufficiency in major staples, but imports of rice and corn have been steadily rising, and analysts also expect the country to start sourcing large quantities of meat from overseas.

 

China's demand for beef has risen more than twice as quickly as domestic production in recent years, driving up prices and meat consumption would continue to rise as China urbanises, and imports could be increased, Xu said.