September 8, 2010

 

Russia optimistic about winter wheat

 

 

Russia may sow the same amount of winter grain this year as in 2009, government officials and farmers said.

 

"We plan to sow up to 18 million hectares of winter grain this year, the same amount as we did last year," said Deputy Agriculture Minister Alexander Petrikov. "All of the resources are in place to make this happen."

 

Winter-grain planting is particularly important this year, as Russia's worst drought in decades has wiped out almost a third of its grain crop. Last week, the Agriculture Ministry said that even under a worst-case scenario, it would sow 12 million hectares. Russia is the world's third-largest wheat exporter.

 

World wheat prices have soared more than 60% in recent weeks after Russia banned grain exports because of the drought. Last week, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin provoked further consternation after saying the ban will be extended until more is known about the size of next year's harvest.

 

Food prices rose to their highest level in two years, jumping 5% in August due to a surge in wheat prices, according to the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organisation. That has prompted fears that people in poorer countries may suffer.

 

Stephen Durr, who heads EkoNiva, an agricultural company that operates 100,000 acres of farmland throughout Russia said, "Most of my colleagues and myself have planted as much as we originally intended to, which is almost as much as last year."

 

"We know it's a bit of a gamble, but moving everything over to the spring would not be the best idea either," Durr said.

 

Russian grain union president Arkady Zlochevsky said sowing 18 million hectares was a "realistic" goal. "Of course, it all depends on the rains," he said. "But even if there is less rain than anticipated, 15 million or 16 million hectares is still achievable."

 

Some experts, however, think Russia has already lost the race to match last year's winter-grain sowing.

 

"Even if rain falls everywhere it should, 18 million hectares still sounds like an overestimate," said Andrei Sizov, executive director of Sovecon, an agricultural-research firm. "Many regions are already behind schedule, as they should have started planting two to three weeks ago. They have already missed the optimum window for planting."

 

Sizov said the Agriculture Ministry's worst-case scenario of 12 million hectares was much closer to reality.