September 8, 2010

 

Russia's grain stocks revised up

With the grain stocks estimate having been revised up to 26 million tonnes, Russia has sufficient grain to feed itself despite a severe drought, stated Agriculture Minister Yelena Skrynnik, Tuesday (Sept 6).

 

The Kremlin and top economic officials have been at pains to reassure the public, already feeling the inflationary effects of the drought and worried about shortages despite a ban on grain exports that will last at least until the end of the year.

 

"There will be enough grain for food and for the feeding of animals," Skrynnik said. The country's grain stocks estimates have been revised from 21.7 million tonnes.

 

Agriculture Ministry spokesman Oleg Aksyonov said 26 million tonnes was based on the latest available data, which did not include volumes the ministry has said farmers may be hiding. He said Skrynnik announced this figure after "carefully studying the stocks".

 

President Dmitry Medvedev, who has been touring farms and other food producers to discuss food security in the aftermath of the drought, said last week that Russia had carryover grain stocks of 21-25 million tonnes.

 

In the flurry of political activity from Russia's top two leaders, aimed at damping down anxiety about shortages and prices, the outlook from the Kremlin has occasionally diverged from figures and statements given by Prime Minister Vladimir Putin.

 

Previously, the official statistics office said that the stocks carried over from the previous crop year, which ended on June 30, were 21.7 million tonnes.

 

The Agriculture Ministry has said that stocks were larger and could be equal to 24 million tonnes, as the official statistics did not take into account stocks held at small farms.

 

Last month, Skrynnik said that the grain stocks could be as high as 25.8 million tonnes, including stocks held at "backyard farms". But she said the stocks had been calculated as of June 1 and not as of July 1.

 

"In fact, what this volume represents is not carryover stocks, but grain availability. The figure includes some new crop grain and also non-marketable stocks held at backyard farms and consumed inside them. These stocks normally are not included in the official statistics as they represent no importance for the market," Andrei Sizov Sr., CEO of SovEcon agricultural analysts, said.

 

SovEcon estimated the country's carryover stocks at 20.02 million tonnes.

 

Skrynnik confirmed the ministry's forecast for a 2010 grain crop of 60-65 million tonnes and estimated domestic consumption needs at 77 million tonnes.

 

Russia's harvest is expected to fall this year from 97 million tonnes in 2009 and 108 million in 2008 after Russia's worst drought in over a century.