September 8, 2005
 

USDA: China poultry and products annual report 2005

Post forecasts China's broiler slaughter during 2006 at 7.7 billion birds, a 3 percent increase from the estimated 7.5 million birds in 2005.  Broiler meat production for 2006 is forecast at 10.5 MMT, also a 3 percent increase from the estimated 10.2 MMT this year. 

The pace of growth in 2006 is forecast to be faster than 2005 because of the rebound in broiler meat demand after the 2004 avian influenza outbreaks, increased grain and feed production and increased poultry sector investment. Of total poultry egg production, 80 percent is comprised of chicken eggs. 

Chicken layer production is becoming more concentrated in grain feed production areas in the Northeast and North China, though overall broiler production is constrained by feed grain supplies. 

The domestic corn production gap is around 20 MMT a year, and 70 percent of soy meal, 70 percent of fishmeal and 50 percent of amino acid inputs have to be satisfied by imports. 

Though avian influenza (AI) outbreaks remain a concern for the China's poultry industry and consumers, post forecasts China's broiler consumption for 2006 at 10.8 MMT, a 2.7 percent increase from the estimated 10.2 MMT in 2005.

China's broiler imports during 2006 are forecast to increase 14 percent to 320,000 MT from the estimated 280,000 MT in 2005-still below the pre-AI levels. The U.S. is still the largest poultry product supplier to the import market, but strong competition from Brazil threatens this position. 

Post forecasts China's poultry exports during 2006 at 360,000 MT, a 2-percent increase from the estimated 300,000 MT in 2005. The export increase is driven by export market demand from Japan and Hong Kong that account for 80 percent of the export market. 

As frozen broiler exports to other countries remain constrained, China will continue focusing market access negotiations on cooked broiler exports.     

For the full USDA report, click here.