September 7, 2012

Brazil's August corn export estimate rises to 16 million tonnes

As the world looks to South America to offset US drought losses, Brazil will export a record 16 million tonnes of corn from the 2011-12 crop, raising its 14-million-tonne estimate from August.

Conab, the government's supply agency, held its estimate for the 2011-12 corn crop at 72.7 million tonnes and maintained its forecast for the now-completed soy harvest at 66.4 million tonnes in its last of 12 monthly estimates for the crop.

Final, or carry-over stocks of corn are projected at 12.484 million tonnes this year, down from 14.63 million tonnes from August as more corn is destined for the export market.

Brazil still has significantly more stocks from its year-ago 5.963 million tonnes, meaning there should not be a shortage of corn on the local market. The boost in corn output is due mostly to an increase of more than 70% in the second of two annual harvests, known as the winter crop.

While Brazil is harvesting a record corn crop, 2011-12 soy output in the world's No. two producer is far less than the record harvest a year ago as dry weather erased roughly 10 million tonnes from initial production forecasts.

Brazil will likely export 31.25 million tonnes of soy according to Conab, down from the 32.986 million tonnes it exported a year earlier and leaving just 945,500 tonnes of stocks compared with three million tonnes from the 2010-2011 crop.

Soy production is expected to get back on track for the 2012-13 soy crop that will be planted later this month. Local analysts expect record output, though Conab will not issue official forecasts for the new crops until next month.