September 7, 2011

 

US soy exports to decrease

 

 

US soy exports are expected to slow down in the third quarter of the year as competitors from South America clinch more deals, according to Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World on Tuesday (Sep 6).

 

It has become more likely that this year's US soy crop will turn below the 83.2 million tonnes forecast on August 11 by the USDA which in turn was down 7.4 million tonnes on the year, Oil World said.

 

"Demand for US soy must indeed be rationed and most of this will probably be done in exports," Oil World said.

 

It added, "US exporters will lose market share in October/December, their peak export season."

 

Oil World did not give a new estimate of the US soy this year. CBOT soy prices had risen sharply on Friday (September 2) after brokerage INTL FC Stone lowered its forecast of the US soy following hot weather in the Midwest.

 

Large unsold soy stocks in Argentina and Brazil are currently providing heavy export competition to US soy, it said.

 

Brazil's success against US competition in a soy tender from Taiwan on September 2 was an example, it said.

 

"But South American old-crop stocks can offset the decline of US Supplies only temporarily at best until early 2012," it said.

 

It warned that early 2012 soy outlooks in both Argentina and Brazil are uncertain because of the possible disruptive La Nina weather pattern and farmers may shift to corn due to high prices.

 

With the global soy supply burden likely to rest on South America, any news of soy problems in Brazil or Argentina may push prices up in coming weeks, it added.