September 7, 2009

Brazil's estimate for the current 2008-2009 soy crush was lowered to 30.2 million tonnes from 30.9 million tonnes Friday (Sept 4) by the Brazilian Vegetable Oils Industry Association, or Abiove.

 

Brazil should produce 57.3 million tonnes of soy from the 2008-09 crop, steady from Abiove's last estimate on August 8.

 

The estimate is close to Brazil's National Commodities Supply Corp., or Conab, which puts the crop at 57.1 million tonnes.

 

Brazil is in the inter-harvest period for its soy crop.

 

Abiove raised its export estimate to 27.1 million tonnes in 2008-09. Abiove's previous export estimate on August 8 was 26.2 million tonnes. Brazil has seen strong buying from countries such as China this year.

 

Abiove said that Brazil should produce 23 million tonnes of soymeal in 2008-09, compared to 23.6 million tonnes in its last estimate in August. Abiove also said its export estimate was 11.5 million tonnes of soymeal in 2008-09 compared with 12.1 million tonnes in its last estimate.

 

Brazilians are also expected to consume 11.6 million tonnes of soymeal in 2008-09, steady with the last estimate.

 

Abiove said that Brazil should produce 5.8 million tonnes of soyoil in 2008-09, compared to 5.9 million tonnes in the previous estimate.

 

Abiove's export estimate was at 1.5 million tonnes of oil in 2008-09 compared to 1.65 million tonnes last month. Local consumption is steady at 4.3 million tonnes of soyoil in 2008-09 compared to the previous estimate.

 

Brazil's soy crush numbers are used as a market barometer that measures the size of the national soy crop and supply and demand.

 

Abiove members include the world's largest soy exporting companies, such as Bunge Ltd. and Archer Daniels Midland Co.

 

Brazil is the world's No. 2 soy producer after the US.