September 7, 2005
 

USDA: Indonesia poultry and products annual 2005

Broiler output is forecast to reach 672,000 tons in 2006, just 5 percent above that in 2005. The sector will still be operating at well below full capacity, and this forecast is about 60,000 tons below the record output achieved in 2003. 

However, Avian Influenza (AI) and rising input costs hinder any expectations for more rapid growth. AI is now endemic in Indonesia. Twenty-one of Indonesia's thirty-three provinces have reported cases.

The 2005 production estimate has been reduced to 640,000 tons, or just 2 percent above 2004.

Following the demand shock associated with the report of human AI deaths in 2005, consumption is forecast to rebound about 5 percent in 2006. Consumption dropped about 20 percent after the human AI deaths were announced in July 2005, but by August 2005, consumer confidence was returning, and the sector is hopeful that consumption will fully rebound as Ramadan approaches in October 2005. 

For 2005, broiler meat consumption is estimated at 640,000 tons, or 2.9 kg/capita/year (projected 220 million population at 2005), which is still well below many of Indonesia's ASEAN neighbors.  

The ban on imported U.S. chicken parts implemented in September 2000 continues, and imports of other poultry meat remain relatively insignificant. One poultry company was exporting a minor quantity of processed poultry products to Japan prior to the appearance of AI in 2003. Eligibility to export to Japan has not been reinstated since the confirmation of AI.

Efforts to remove the ban on U.S. broiler parts can be expected to provoke a fierce backlash from the local industry. Meanwhile, the sector continues to represent one of the most important buyers on U.S. agriculture products in Indonesia. Total purchases (feed components and live chicks) by the industry in 2005 are estimated to be around $150 million.   

For the full USDA report, click here.