September 5, 2007

 

US Crop Progress Wrap: Corn, soy ratings flat to up slightly

 

 

The condition of the US corn and soybean crops was unchanged to slightly better-than-expected as both crops near the end of their growing seasons, the US Department of Agriculture reported Tuesday (September 4).

 

The US spring wheat harvest is nearing completion, unchanged with the pace set in 2006, according to the report.

 

The USDA reported that 59 percent of the crop was rated in good-to-excellent condition, unchanged from last year, with several large US corn-producing states reporting small changes from last week's ratings.

 

"The corn crop is moving toward maturity so the ratings are not a surprise," said Bill Nelson, associate vice president at AG Edwards & Sons in St. Louis.

 

In Iowa, the largest US corn-producing state, 68 percent of the crop was rated in good-to-excellent condition, down two percentage points from last week. Ninety-four percent of the crop was reported in the dough stage, compared with 96 percent in 2006 and near the five-year average of 93 percent. Seventy-seven percent of the crop was reported in the dent stage, below the 81 percent reported in 2006 and but above the five-year average of 70 percent.

 

Sixteen percent of the state's crop was rated mature, above the 13 percent reported in 2006 at this time and above the five-year average of 13 percent.

 

In Illinois, 73 percent of the crop was rated as good to excellent, up one percentage point from a week ago. Ninety-two percent of the crop was in the dent stage, above the 85 percent reported in 2006 and well above the 5-year average of 77 percent.

 

Forty-four percent of the crop was reported as mature, well above the 19 percent reported in 2006 and the five-year average of 18 percent.

 

Overall, 25 percent of the US corn crop is rated mature, above the 19 percent reported in 2006 and the five-year average of 17 percent.

 

"The corn condition rating is unchanged and it should be with the maturity of the crop above average," said John Kleist of Kleist Ag Consulting. "Corn isn't trading on crop conditions, so this report won't have much market impact, he said.

  

The USDA reported that 56 percent of the US soybean crop was in good-to-excellent condition, one percentage point above last week and above analyst expectations of unchanged to a two-percentage point decline in conditions.

 

"The higher-than-expected rating is a little bearish, as the market expected conditions to come in unchanged to slightly weaker," said Nelson.

 

There were more states reporting weaker conditions than better conditions, but South Dakota reported a seven-percentage-point increase in its good-to-excellent ratings to 79 percent from the 72 percent reported last week, Nelson said.

 

In Iowa, 73 percent of the crop was reported in good-to-excellent condition, down two percentage points from last week. Seven percent of the crop was reported dropping leaves, unchanged from 2006 as well as the five-year average.

 

In Illinois, 55 percent of the crop was rated in good-to-excellent condition, up two percentage points from the previous week. Fifteen percent of the state's crop was dropping leaves, well above the 3 percent reported last year and the five-year average of 7 percent.

 

There was nothing remarkable about the one-percentage- point improvement in the ratings, Kleist said. Several southern states reported lower crop ratings but the market already has anticipated the poor conditions in the South, he said. However, "Illinois' good-to-excellent rating at 55 percent is big and Iowa is rated at 73 percent good to excellent which is huge," said Kleist.

 

The US spring wheat harvest was reported at 96 percent complete, above the 87 percent reported a week ago and in line with 96 percent harvested last year at this time. The five-year average is 80 percent.

 

The spring wheat crop harvest is moving toward completion and the weather is conducive to finishing the harvest on a timely basis, said Nelson. It is being overshadowed by the issues wheat is having in the Southern Hemisphere, he added.

 

Ninety-five percent of the crop is harvested in North Dakota, well above the five-year average of 77 percent, though slightly below the 97 percent harvested last year at this time.