September 1, 2009

The US agricultural trade surplus will slip to US$15 billion in fiscal year 2010, down from a newly revised forecast of US$21 billion in FY 2009, according to a report released Monday (August 31) by the US Department of Agriculture.

The forecast released by the USDA's Economic Research Service said US$97 billion worth of agricultural exports are expected for FY 2010, which begins Oct. 1. Imports, the forecast said, are expected to total $82 billion.

Grain and oilseed exports, the report said, will be worth less in FY 2010 due to "abundant" global production. Cotton exports will fall "US$600 million as volume declines 20 percent due to tighter domestic supply and increased competition."

Imports, though, are expected to grow in FY 2010.

"As consumer spending turns positive through 2010, import growth will follow," according to the USDA report. For sugar and tropical products, US$1.6 billion more in imports are projected, and US$2.1 billion more are forecast for horticulture products.

The revised predictions for agricultural trade in FY 2009 show higher-than-expected exports and less imports than were forecast in May.

The FY 2009 export prediction was raised to US$97.5 billion, up from the US$96 billion predicted in May. FY 2009 imports are now expected to total US$76 billion, down from the May forecast of US$81 billion.