September 1, 2006

US soy estimates lowered while corn yield increases slightly

Production estimates were reduced from a month ago by 5 million bushels for durum and 82 million bushels for soybeans in the Supply and Demand Report released by the USDA on Aug 11.

The national corn yield was increased from 149 bushels per acre in the July report to 152.2 in August. Most of the production increase went to ending stocks, which was 10.4 percent of total use versus 9.2 percent last month.

The national soybean yield was reduced from 40.7 bushels per acre to 39.6 bushels, which resulted in the 82 million bushel production decrease. In addition, the carryover from last year was reduced by 30 million bushels because of increased crushing and exports.

Minor changes in total use for the 2006 crop resulted in a significant reduction in ending stocks, which are estimated to be 15 percent of total use, compared with estimates of 18.7 percent a month ago. The seasonal average price was left unchanged at US$5 to US$6. The average was US$5.70 for the 2005 crop.

Production was reduced by 7 million bushels for barley and 3 million for oats. Feed levels were reduced by 5 million bushels for each, so ending stocks were little changed.