September 1, 2004

Canadian 2004/05 Wheat Crop Seen At 24.7 Million MT

Canadian wheat production for 2004/2005 is forecast to increase to 24.7 million metric tons because of increased moisture and higher yields, according to information from the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service web site, dated Aug. 27 and released Tuesday.

Wheat

Canadian total wheat production for 2004/2005 is forecast to increase to 24.7 million metric tons, a 5% increase from 2003/2004 as a result of higher yields in western Canada. Ontario wheat production is forecast to decline from the record of 2.3 million MT in 2003/2004 to 1.7 million MT, a 26% decline as a result of lower seeded areas, the report said.

Despite larger total production, exports are forecast to increase only 4% from 2003/2004. This is a dramatic difference in comparison to the increase from 2002/2003 to 2003/2004, which forecast an increase of 43% in exports. The large production in Ontario wheat in 2003/2004 helped to increase the export numbers for that year. The smaller crop in Ontario and the questionable quality will reduce Ontario's wheat exports for 2004/2005.

Corn

Canadian corn production for 2004/2005 is forecast to fall by 15% from 2003/2004 to 8.2 million MT as a result of lower area seeded and yields, especially in Ontario. Imports of corn, especially into eastern Canada, are forecast to increase almost 20% from 2003/2004 as a result of smaller domestic supply.

The increase in imports into eastern Canada will offset the decrease in imports in western Canada, where the increase in barley production will offset the necessity for corn. Corn exports are forecast to be down 43% from 2003/2004 as a result of the decreased production levels. The end stocks are forecast to decline 12% from the 2003/2004 levels.