September 1, 2004

Brazil's Abiove Pegs 2004-05 Soy Production Up 22% On Year At 61.5 Million MT

Brazilian soybean production will total 61.5 million metric tons in the coming 2004-05 season (October-September), up 22% from the 50.6 million tons produced last year, according to the Brazilian Vegetable Oil Industries Association, or Abiove.
 
The main crushing and export industry group's estimate is well below local crop forecasts of around 63 million to 64 million tons, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture's estimate of 66 million tons.
 
With much more soy available, Brazil is expected to ship 23.0 million tons of soybeans in the 2005-06 marketing season (February-January), up 16.1% from the 19.8 million tons seen being exported this season.
 
Abiove's first estimate for the new season was based on a survey of its members, which own around 90% of Brazil's crushing capacity.
 
Soybean crushing is expected to total 32.5 million tons in 2004-05, 9.0% higher than the 29.8 million tons seen processed this season
 
As a result, soymeal production is seen rising to 25.0 million tons from a projected 23.2 million tons this year.
 
Most of the extra soymeal produced will be exported. Meal shipments are seen reaching 16.3 million tons, up 8.7% from the 15.0 million tons forecast for 2003-04.
 
Soyoil output is expected to rise to 6.2 million tons next year from 5.65 million tons this season. Meanwhile, exports are seen jumping 13.0% to 3.05 million tons from 2.70 million tons in 2004-05
 
With soybean output slumping in 2003-04 to 50.6 million tons, crushing sector stocks will drop to 800,000 tons by the end of January. But the greater output next year means stocks are projected to rise to 1.20 million tons by the end of the 2005-06 season.
 
Brazil is the world's No. 2 soybean producer after the U.S.