August 31, 2010

Japan may lower beef imports as population wanes

Japan may reduce beef imports and consumption during the next decade as the country's population slides, the USDA said.

Imports may drop to 613,000 tonnes in 2020 (1.35 billion pounds), down 9.6% from an estimated 678,000 tonnes this year, if the country's population change follows US Census Bureau projections, the USDA's Economic Research Service said.

Beef imports may total 658,000 tonnes next year. Forecasts assume personal income and beef prices will remain unchanged.

USDA said that rising beef prices, or a continuation of the economic slump seen in 2008 and 2009, could exacerbate this underlying decline dictated by Japan's demographic conditions. The department noted that current projections, however, point to a return to economic growth, and easier access to US beef could lead to lower average prices in Japan.

Japan was the third-largest importer of US beef last year, after Mexico and Canada. Japan ranked first in 2003, before it placed restrictions on the meat following an outbreak of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE). The country currently only imports US beef from cattle younger than 21 months of age.

Japan's overall beef consumption may drop to 1.138 million tonnes in 2020, down 4.8% from 1.195 million tonnes this year, if populations decline, the USDA said. Consumption may total 1.183 million tonnes in 2011.