Weather keeps US soy crop hanging in the balance

 

 

The 2009 US soy crop is teetering between the threat of a September frost damaging the late-planted oilseed or the possibility of record production.

 

Weather is always important for soy, but because the crop was planted so late and the Midwestern growing season has been so cool, worries about an early frost are heightened, especially with very thin old-crop stocks. Yet, because there were no hot spells this summer, if the crop can escape a September freeze, there's great potential for record production.

 

In an August 12 report, the USDA estimated 2009 soy production at 3.2 billion bushels, with a yield of 41.7 bushels an acre. The USDA said 85 percent of the crop was setting pods as of August 23, below the five-year average of 92 percent. After pollination, soy set pods that will hold the developed bean.

 

Agronomists see the crop straddling the edge between disaster and bounty going into September with pod-setting behind by as much as 30 percent.

 

A wet spring kept farmers from entering fields on time, but the situation was more severe in the eastern corn-belt than the west. That makes crops in the eastern area at more risk of a yield-robbing frost than the west, said Darrell Jobman, analyst with Traderplanet.com.

 

Soy in Iowa, the No. 1 soy producer, are at least 10 days to two weeks behind in development, said Palle Pedersen, extension agronomist with Iowa State University. Soy that were planted early this spring will mature in about three weeks; normally those early-planted soy would be ready by Labor Day, Pedersen said.

 

The story is the same in Illinois, the second-largest soy grower.

 

"The crop needs warmer, sunny and drier conditions to reach potential," said Vince Davis, extension agronomist with University of Illinois, who adds a September frost would be "devastating."

 

"Illinois soy is in uncharted territory in 2009, particularly with late-developing crops a bigger percentage than seen before," Davis said.

 

This was the latest-planted Illinois soy crop in history and the coldest July in history, he said.

 

Although there is no threat of freeze anticipated in September, said Donald Keeney, meteorologist with Cropcast Weather Services, it doesn't stop the worrying that frost will arrive early, especially since the cool pattern is set to continue.

 

"The forecast for September features calls for slightly cooler-than-normal temperatures for the Dakotas, western Iowa and western Minnesota, with the heart of the Midwest on target for slightly above-average temps," Keeney said.

 

The average temperatures for September are highs in the low 70s and upper 60s Fahrenheit with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

 

The average frost date for southern Minnesota, south central Wisconsin and central Michigan is October 1, Keeney said. Northern Missouri, central Illinois, south central Indiana, and southern Ohio have a normal frost date of October 15, said Keeney. A frost injures part of the plant, but a hard freeze kills.

 

Iowa soy would be in "big trouble" if a freeze occurred before October 1, said Iowa State's Pedersen.

 

The Illinois crop needs to escape a hard freeze until October 10-15 to avoid yield losses, Davis said.

 

An early freeze would produce undeveloped beans, resulting in lower quality for processing as well as making it tougher to harvest and market, said Don White, plant pathologist at University of Illinois.

 

Before soy is mature, seed coats aren't developed, they are smaller and grain elevators will discount the beans, White said.

 

The one positive for crops is they aren't lacking moisture, but additional rains will increase disease risk from sudden death syndrome and white mold, agronomists said.