August 31, 2009

Argentine corn planting is kicking off, but many farmers are waiting for warmer, wetter weather before putting seed to soil, the Agriculture Secretariat said it its weekly crop report Friday (Aug 28).

 

In Entre Rios province, "most farmers are waiting for an improvement in soil temperature and in other cases a little more moisture in the first centimetres of soil," the Secretariat said.

 

"For now, there is little enthusiasm for planting, with area expected to fall 23 percent from last season" in Entre Rios, the Secretariat said.

 

Argentina's 2009-10 commercial corn area is expected to total just two million hectares, a 19-percent drop on the year, according to the Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange.

 

The decreased area is due mainly to drought in the western farm belt, lack of clear market conditions and farmer confidence, and higher planting costs relative to soy, the exchange said.

 

The Rosario Grain Exchange has forecast total corn planting of 2.3 million hectares, with 2009-10 production at about 16 million tonnes.

 

Half of that amount will likely be set aside by the government for domestic demand, leaving just eight million tonnes available for export, according to the Rosario exchange.

 

Wheat planting is all but complete, with crop conditions varying widely, according to the Secretariat.

 

While the crop is developing well across much of the farm belt, drought is affecting the crop in the far south and in other isolated areas.

 

In the Bahia Blanca district of Buenos Aires, "The seedlings have good color, but the germination was bad...with lots of space between plants," the Secretariat said.

 

The Secretariat hasn't forecast wheat area, but the Buenos Aires exchange estimates planted area at 2.75 million hectares, down 40.2 percent on the year and representing the smallest area going to the crop in more than 100 years.

 

The Rosario Grain Exchange forecasts 2009-10 wheat production of 7.4 million tonnes. That's down from 8.7 million tonnes in 2008-09 and down sharply from the average of 14.76 million tonnes over the previous five years.

 

With domestic demand estimated at six million tonnes, just 1.4 million tonnes of wheat is likely to be left over for export from the 2009-10 crop, according to the Rosario Exchange.

 

Continued dry weather in the northern areas has stalled sunflower seed planting in those areas, the Secretariat said.

 

According to the Buenos Aires exchange, 5.8 percent of the forecast sunseed area had been planted as of Wednesday (Aug 19).

 

The Buenos Aires exchange has forecast sunseed area at 2.22 million hectares, significantly higher than the two million hectares expected by the Rosario Grain Exchange. The Rosario exchange forecasts production of 3.4 million tonnes, up from about three million tonnes last season when yields suffered due to drought.

 

Soy production is expected to rise sharply again next season. In addition to weather factors, the fact that soy are the only major crop in which the government doesn't control exports is spurring farmers to plant more of the oilseed. Argentina limits the export of wheat and corn to ensure domestic supply and keep down local prices.

 

Soy planting is likely to surge to between 19 million and 20 million hectares during 2009-10, according to Panagricola S.A. chief analyst Ricardo Baccarin. That would shatter the record set during the 2008-09 season, when farmers seeded 16.6 million hectares with the oilseed.

 

The Rosario exchange forecasts 2009-10 soy planting of 18.5 million hectares, with production of 50 million tonnes.