August 29, 2012

 

 

The forecast for Ukraine's 2012-13 grain exports has been lowered by UkrAgroConsult to 21.15 million tonnes from an estimate in July of 23.33 million due to a smaller-than-expected harvest of corn and barley.

 

Ukraine is likely to harvest 42.38 million tonnes of grain this year, down from a previous forecast of 43.87 million, the consultancy said in a report on Tuesday (Aug 28).

 

UkrAgroConsult said farms would harvest grain from 14.8 million hectares this year and the yield could average 2.86 tonnes per hectare. In 2011-12 the yield averaged 3.29 tonnes per hectare.

 

Ukraine could harvest 19 million tonnes of corn, 14.2 million tonnes of wheat and 6.5 million tonnes of barley this year, it estimated.

 

The former Soviet republic has already finished its wheat and barley harvests, which totalled 16.3 million tonnes and 7.2 million, respectively. In 2011-12 Ukraine harvested 22.3 million tonnes of wheat and 9.1 million of barley.

 

The Agriculture Ministry said this week farms had started the 2012-13 corn harvest, gathering the first 42,000 tonnes of the commodity. The ministry said the corn yield totalled 2.78 tonnes per hectare as of August 27, compared with four tonnes at the same date in 2011-12.

 

Ukraine harvested a record 22.7 million tonnes of corn last year and had planned to harvest at least 25 million this year. But hot weather this summer is likely to reduce the output to about 20 million tonnes.

 

UkrAgroConsult said Ukraine's corn exports could total no more than 12.5 million tonnes this season compared to July forecast of 13.5 million tonnes. Ukraine exported 15 million tonnes of corn in 2011-12.

 

Ukraine's 2012 wheat harvest fell to about 14 million tonnes from 20.6 million in 2011-12, UkrAgroConsult said, adding that official harvest results could be overstated. The smaller crop means that the exportable surplus will total about 6.3 million tonnes in 2012-13.

 

"UkrAgroConsult estimates that the wheat crop after conditioning will approximate 14 million tonnes. State statistics may show higher figures, but our experience suggests that official crop figures may be overstated," the analyst said.

 

"This is especially the case for such a strategic commodity as wheat, more so in the pre-election period."

 

UkrAgroConsult said that carryover wheat stocks could total about 5.9 million tonnes as of July 1, 2012 and might fall to 2.3 million tonnes as of July 1, 2013.

 

"Although the wheat crop shrank by 30% from last year, this season's wheat exports will stay high and may total 6.5 million tonnes. Such high shipments will be achieved thanks to available wheat carryovers from last season," it said.

 

"Exports will also be supported by a probable reduction of wheat supply from Russia in the season's latter half or maybe even sooner," UkrAgroConsult said. Russia's government has said the wheat harvest there could be at about 45 million tonnes this year.

 

"The Russian Agriculture Ministry will meet on Friday (Aug 31) to discuss the prospects for its drought-hit grain harvest. It now seems obvious that the 2012 wheat production will be close to the 2010 level of production around 40 million tonnes (41.2 million in 2010)," the Agritel consultancy said in a report.

 

UkrAgroConsult noted that milling wheat accounts for 80.7% of this year's wheat harvest and that the 2012-13 season would be characterised by intensifying competition between Ukrainian and Russian wheat, because Ukraine would offer mostly milling wheat to the international market this year.