August 29, 2007

 

US Crop Progress Wrap: Corn, soy ratings improve slightly

 

US corn and soybean crops rated in good-to-excellent condition improved slightly in the week ended Sunday (August 26), the US Department of Agriculture said Monday (August 27) in its weekly crop progress report.

The US spring wheat harvest, meanwhile, remains on an above-average pace, according to the report.

The USDA said 59 percent of the corn crop was rated in good-to-excellent condition as of August 26, up from 58 percent a week ago and two percentage points better than last year's rating.

"The ratings increase was little bit of a surprise, as the trade had a general feel that the report would show a modest decrease following heavy rains in the upper Midwest last week," said Shawn McCambridge, senior grains analyst with Prudential Financial in Chicago.

"The report is a little slanted to the negative side, with generally favourable crop conditions seen for this week, but at this point the crop is far enough along that the ratings are not going to make much of an impact," he added.

In the top corn-producing states, Iowa had 70 percent of its crop rated good to excellent, down from 71 percent the previous week, according to the USDA. Eighty-five percent of Iowa's corn was in the dough state, above the average of 82 percent, and 58 percent was dented, above the average of 45 percent, the USDA said.

In Illinois, 72 percent of the crop was in good-to-excellent condition, unchanged from a week ago. Ninety-eight percent of the crop was in the dough stage, above the average of 93 percent, and 80 percent was dented, above the average of 62 percent.

In Nebraska, 77 percent of the crop was rated good to excellent, down from 79 percent the previous week. Ninety-four percent of the crop was in the dough stage, above the average of 91 percent, and 63 percent was dented, above the average of 56 percent, the USDA said.

On average, 91 percent of the country's crop was in the dough stage, above the average of 83 percent, while 63 percent was dented, above the average of 49 percent, according to the USDA. Twelve percent was mature, above the average of 9 percent.

 The USDA rated 55 percent of the soy crop in good-to-excellent condition, up from 54 percent a week ago, but below last year's rating of 59 percent.

The small increase in soybean crop ratings was a little unexpected, and may take a little steam out of the market's late bounce, said Brian Hoops, president Midwest Market Solutions in Yankton, S.D.

The market was anticipating lower ratings, and the report failed to confirm traders' crop concerns following last week's heavy rains in the northern Midwest and stressful heat in the southern belt, analysts said.

In Illinois, 53 percent of the crop was in good-to-excellent condition, down from 58 percent a week earlier. Ninety-eight percent of the crop was setting pods, above the average of 95 percent, and 5 percent was dropping leaves, above the average of 2 percent, the USDA said.

In Iowa, 75 percent of the crop was in good-to-excellent condition, down from 76 percent a week earlier. Ninety-nine percent of the crop was setting pods, on par with the five-year average, while 1 percent of the crop was dropping leaves, the USDA said.

In Indiana, 41 percent of the crop was rated in good-to-excellent condition, up from 35 percent the previous week. Ninety-seven percent of the crop was setting pods, above the average of 92 percent, and 9 percent of the crop was dropping leaves, up from the average of 4 percent, according to the USDA.

Overall, 96 percent of the US soybean crop was setting pods, up from the average of 94 percent, and 6 percent was dropping leaves, up from the average of 5 percent.

The ratings may put a little pressure on overnight prices at the start, Hoops said. Otherwise, the report did not provide any other features that were out of the ordinary, he added.

 The US spring wheat crop was 87 percent harvested, up from 73 percent a week ago. The pace trails last year's 90 percent, but is well above the five-year average of 69 percent.

Aside from a few scattered delays from rain systems early this week, based off the report data and current weather outlooks spring wheat harvesting should finish in a timely fashion, McCambridge said.

In North Dakota, 84 percent of the crop was cut, down from 88 percent last year but above the average of 65 percent. In South Dakota, 100 percent of the crop was cut, on par with the pace of 2006 and above the average of 99 percent.

In Minnesota, 96 percent of the crop was harvested, on par with last year, and well above the five-year average of 71 percent. In Montana, 84 percent was cut, down from 89 percent in 2006 but sharply above the average of 61 percent.