August 27, 2010

 

China forecasts stable grain output this year

China's grain output is expected to see a marginal decline, but could still amount to 500 million tonnes as some of the nation's measures to combat the recent weather vagaries have borne fruit, agricultural experts said on Wednesday (Aug 25).

 

Despite the weather fluctuations, grain output is likely to reach last year's levels, said Zhai Huqu, president of the Chinese Academy of Agriculture.

 

Last year, China produced 531 million tonnes of grain, the National Bureau of Statistics said. But summer grain output fell by 0.3% this year to 123.1 million tonnes.

 

"The decline is only natural, considering the natural disasters in the southern and northeastern regions. However, overall supplies will not be substantially affected," said Xu Xiaoqing, a rural economic expert with the Development Research Centre of the State Council

 

Grain harvested during autumn, mainly corn and rice, accounts for 70%-80% of the total grain output.

 

A major factor that has helped the nation offset much of the weather-related impact has been the increase in the area under grains cultivation.

 

"The additional acreage for corn and rice will count towards the good autumn grain harvest," said Ding Shengjun, a researcher with the State Grain Administration.

 

Though the overall summer grain output declined, the wheat harvest increased significantly. The nation is more or less self-sufficient in wheat and protected from global price fluctuations.

 

China imported 845,000 tonnes of wheat during the first half of the year, which is a relatively small proportion compared with the nation's annual wheat output of 110 million tonnes, according to the Ministry of Agriculture.

 

The imports were undertaken at a time when prices in the international markets were at relatively lower levels, said analysts.

 

China has, however, increased corn and rice imports in the past few months.

 

Corn is China's biggest crop, and 90% of the output is used as animal feed, while 5% is used for industrial purposes such as ethanol and alcohol production.

 

With only 5% being used for edible purposes, imports will not impact food security, experts said, adding that there have been no wild swings in imports and exports and the overall situation is well under control.

 

Global grain prices will continue to increase in the long term as the world will face more climate change challenges. Thus, China needs to enhance its agricultural techniques to ensure future food security, said analysts.