August 27, 2010

 

Russia needs six-million-tonne foreign grain in 2010/11

Russia, the world's former No. 3 wheat exporter, may need to import up to six million tonnes of grain in the current 2010/11 crop year to compensate for a severe drought, a leading Russian analyst said on Thursday (Aug 26).

 

"Maybe we will not import all of this, but the balance shows that we will need this volume," said Andrei Sizov Sr., CEO of SovEcon agricultural analysts.

 

The volumes will include wheat and feed barley from Kazakhstan, corn from Ukraine, feed barley and rye from Belarus, malting barley from Nordic countries and France, buckwheat from China and rice from Vietnam, China and Thailand.

 

SovEcon expects wheat imports to be 1.5 million tonnes and barley imports 1.8 million, Sizov said.

 

"Besides private importers, we can't rule out that the state grain trader, the United Grain Co, may also import grain to replenish the government stocks to stabilise the market in the next crop year after an expected drastic decline of the winter sowing area," Sizov said.

 

Analysts have estimated Russia may have to ship in 1.5-2.2 million tonnes, but another report last week said Russia could import at least five million tonnes of grain this year.

 

Sizov expected a ban, imposed by the government on grain and grain products exports from Aug 15 to Dec 31 to be extended further at least to July 1 next year.

 

Russia exported between 13.4 million to 21.9 million tonnes of grain per year in 2007/09-2009/10.

 

But it has never stopped being a grain importer, buying wheat from Kazakhstan to improve domestic grain quality, feed corn from Ukraine for animal feeding and malting barley from the EU for beer brewing.

 

Total imports ranged between 0.35 million and 1.5 million tonnes between 2007 and 2010.

 

SovEcon said that drought may cut Russian wheat production to 41.5 million tonnes this year from 61.7 million in 2009 and barley output to 8.9 million tonnes from 17.9 million.