August 26, 2008

 

 

Russia raised its official forecast for this year's grain crop on Monday to 95 million tonnes by clean weight up from a previous forecast of 85 million tonnes despite June rains worsening the quality of the crop.

 

This is compared to an actual harvest of 81.8 million tonnes of grain in 2007.

 

Agriculture Minister Alexei Gordeyev told a government meeting the 95-million figure would be reached if weather conditions in September continue to be favourable.

 

Andrei Sizov Sr., CEO of SovEcon agricultural analysts, agreed with the new forecast, adding that their own calculations show the crop may even top 99.5 million tonnes, above the record 99.1-million-tonne crop reached in 1993. The company estimates 96 million tonnes to be at the low range.

 

He said the wheat crop this year could rise to 54-57 million tonnes from 49.4 million and the barley crop to 19-20.5 million tonnes from 15.7 million.

 

Sizov said he was rather optimistic although officials have said rains in June may have damaged the crop.  The share of milling wheat may be lower than last year but overall actual volumes would not, Sizov said.

 

He said he expected Russian exports to be no lower than 15 million tonnes in the current 2008/09 crop year started from July, compared to nearly 13 million tonnes in 2007/08.

 

Exporters could be shipping 2 million tonnes a month in the next few months, even though transport problems are anticipated.

 

Grains had been harvested from 55 percent of the sowing area.

 

The Agriculture Ministry said farmers had harvested 75.3 million tonnes of grain by bunker weight by Aug. 25, 22 million tonnes or 41 percent more than a year ago.

 

This number included 43.2 million tonnes of wheat, 10.3 million tonnes more than a year ago and 17 million tonnes of barley, which is 5.2 million tonnes more.