August 26, 2008

Brazil 08-09 soy crop 12 percent sold as of Aug 24

Brazil's 2008-09 soy crop, to be planted in October, was 12 percent sold as of August 24, said commercial farm consultancy Celeres on Monday (August 25).

The number is lower than 2007's sales figures of 18 percent. The lower number is part and parcel of declining soy prices on the Chicago Board of Trade. Farmers stopped selling much of their new crop as a result, and are holding out for higher prices. Expectations are that once the US soy crop has been defined in terms of actual total output, soy futures could easily rise to $15. The US is the world's leading soy producer and therefore the world's price reference for soy. Brazil is the No. 2 soy producer.

CBOT soy futures were around $14 for the March and May contracts on Monday.

There is still some soy left over from the 2007-08 crop in Brazil, harvested from March to May, with around 11 percent remaining. Major soy states such as Mato Grosso and Parana have sold 94 percent and 85 percent, respectively, of its soy. Whatever is left in warehouses will have to last until late February, when some early-cycle soy get harvested in Mato Grosso.