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August 24, 2016
 
Vietnam live hog prices continue downtrend
 
An eFeedLink Exclusive
 
 
Price summary
 
Live hog prices continued their downtrend.
 

Procurement price of live hog over 80kg (Expressed in VND 1,000/kg)

 

W1

W2

W3

W4

Dong Nai

46000

43000

44000

42000

Binh Duong

45000

44000

42000

42000

Can Tho

43000

38000

41000

41000

HCM

44000

43000

42000

40000

Hanoi

45000

43000

41000

41000

(VND1,000 = US$0.045 as of July)

 
 
Market analysis
 
Live hog prices in the southern region in July continued their downtrend, and were down by the range of VND5,500 (US$0.24) to VND7,000 (US$0.31) per kilogram compared to last month.
 
If compared to the prices in April and early May 2016, hog prices in Dong Nai fell by the range of VND12,000 (US$0.53) to VND13,000 (US$0.58) per kilogram, equivalent to more than a 23% reduction. To make matters worse, feed prices rose sharply, causing many farmers to only break even or suffer losses at the current selling price. According to the Dong Nai Livestock Association, the low hog prices are due to the huge dependence on the China market. For example, Dong Nai provides more than 50% of live hogs from Vietnam to the Chinese market, so the significant impact on prices in the province is not surprising. That said, hog farmers are still getting a profit. But if prices continue to fall, farmers should face difficulties. Therefore, farmers are advised to limit stocking and increasing their herd size for the time being, especially in the context of high feed prices and breeding costs.
 
Although live hog prices in many localities have not increased, breeding herd sizes have grown considerably due to farmers in the southern provinces increasing their herd size by the range of 50 to 60%. Accordingly, prices are currently about VND2 million (US$89.68) per breeding pig.
 
The total number of pigs nationwide in July increased by the range of 2.7 to 3.7% over the same period in 2015.
 
 
Market forecast
 
Live hog prices are forecast to drop more in August as China continues its control on imports from Vietnam. Some relief may come in mid-September when the Chinese begins stocking meat ahead of the Mid-Autumn festival.
 


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