August 24, 2010

 

Russian grain crop shows 38% decrease

 

 

Russia has sufficient grain to cover its needs after harvesting 38% less in 2010, but there is still a possibility that the country may import millions of tonnes.

 

Russia, which had been the world's third-largest wheat exporter, was hit by a severe drought in many producing regions that destroyed large parts of its crop and raised the issue of imports.

 

Analysts have estimated its imports at 1.5-2 million tonnes, while a report in Vedomosti daily said Russia could import at least five million tonnes. An Agriculture Ministry spokesman has denied the report.

 

Deputy Agriculture Minister Alexander Petrikov said Russia had harvested 40.3 million tonnes of grain by bunker weight by August 19.

 

He said grains had been harvested from 19.3 million hectares, or 48% of the sown area. Average yields fell to 2.08 tonnes per hectare from 2.69 tonnes per hectare on August 19, 2009.

 

Bunker weight is normally 7-8% higher than clean weight obtained after grain is cleaned and dried. However, the difference may be lower in hot and dry years like this one.

 

Final crop outcome is calculated by clean weight.

 

Petrikov said that Russia had sufficient grain to cover its needs. "I must say that Russia's domestic needs are 77 million tonnes," he said. "With stocks of some 23 million tonnes and intervention stocks of 9.5 million tonnes, this will more than cover domestic needs."

 

Petrikov confirmed the ministry's 2010 crop forecast of 65-67 million tonnes by an optimistic scenario and 60 million tonnes by a pessimistic one.

 

However, the country's carry-over stocks, which had been previously estimated by the state statistics office Rosstat at 21.7 million tonnes and by the Agriculture Ministry at 24 million tonnes as of July 1, already include the 9.5 million tonnes of intervention stocks.

 

With a crop of 60 million tonnes, carry-over stocks of 23 million and consumption of 77 million tonnes, as well as 3.6 million tonnes already exported, according to IKAR analysts, Russia will be left with carryover stocks of just 2.4 million tonnes by the end of the current crop year on June 30, 2011.

 

Taking into account the need to allocate some 11-12 million tonnes for winter sowing due to start in August, Russia appears unable to do without imports.

 

Analysts have said Kazakhstan and Ukraine may provide some grain to Russia. The Russian province of Tatarstan has already asked to buy up to 0.5 million tonnes of grain in Belarus.