August 24, 2009

Professional Farmers of America on Friday (August 21) estimated the 2009-10 US corn crop at 12.807 billion bushels and the US soy crop at 3.150 billion bushels.

 

The group, known as Pro Farmer, projected the average US corn yield at 160.1 bushels an acre, and the average soy yield at 41.0 bushels/acre.

 

However, Pro Farmer cautioned that its estimates assume a "normal" finish to the growing season.

 

"If a September 25 frost ends the season neither corn nor soy will reach these levels," Pro Farmer said in a press release. However, if frost is two weeks late, final yields could be pumped up.

 

Some corn and soy are behind schedule, due to late plantings in some parts of the Midwest, and as a result, weather is a critical factor in the ultimate size of the crops. Because of the general weather uncertainty, Pro Farmer said the corn estimate has a margin of error of plus or minus 1 percent, while the soy estimate could range plus or minus 2 percent.

 

In comparison, the US Department of Agriculture estimated US corn production this year at 12.761 billion bushels, and an average yield of 159.5 bushels/acre, in its Aug. 12 crop production report. The US soy crop will reach 3.199 billion bushels, the USDA said, and an average yield of 41.7 bushels/acre.

 

Pro Farmer said its production estimates are based on several factors, only one of which is this week's Midwest crop tour.

 

Pro Farmer issued state-specific estimates as well.

 

The Ohio corn crop is estimated to yield 162 bushels/acre, down from the USDA estimate, due to late-maturing plants and dry conditions in big production areas.

 

In Indiana, corn yield is also seen at 162 bushels/acre, below the current USDA estimate. Late plantings and slow development are to blame, and Pro Farmer said "recent rains are too late to help build kernel size on most acres."

 

Illinois corn is seen yielding 172 bushels/acre, below the USDA estimate. "Extremely late plantings, slow development and the likelihood of lower-than-normal test weights will keep Illinois from reaching USDA's Aug. 1 estimate of 175 bu. per acre," Pro Farmer said.

 

Iowa, the nation's top corn producer, should see yields of 186 bushels/acre, up slightly from the USDA's estimate, Pro Farmer said.

 

Hailstorms damaged corn fields in some areas of the state, but "once hailed acres are removed from harvested acres, the state's average corn yield will get a bump," Pro Farmer said.

 

Minnesota's corn yield is projected above the USDA's estimate at 170 bushels/acre. "If it weren't for 'poor' crops in central and northern areas, the yield would push even higher," Pro Farmer said.

 

Nebraska corn yield is pegged at 172 bushels/acre. Dryland, or unirrigated, corn in the state is described as the "best ever."

 

In South Dakota, corn yields are estimated at 141 bushels/acre, equal to the USDA's estimate. However, if an early frost doesn't materialize, yield could go higher, Pro Farmer said.

 

Ohio soy yield is pegged at 45 bushels/acre, below the current USDA estimate. Pod counts are higher than last year, but the yield will be limited by poor August weather, Pro Farmer said.

 

Indiana soy yield will be below the USDA projection at 42 bushels/acre due to the lower pod counts and "tough" August weather.

 

In Illinois, late planting and pod counts that are 15 percent lower than a year ago will reduce soy yield to 41 bushels/acre. "If the yield is better than 41 bushels per acre, late-August and September weather will have to be perfect," Pro Farmer said.

 

Iowa soy yield is projected at 51 bushels/acre, slightly below the USDA estimate, due to the high risk of a host of crop diseases.

 

Soy yield in Nebraska is also expected to reach 51 bushels/acre, higher than the USDA prediction. "The crop is well advanced and has plenty of water to finish strong and add bushels," Pro Farmer said.

 

Minnesota's soy crop looks "average," Pro Farmer said, pegging yield at 40 bushels/acre. The threat of crop disease looms heavily over the state's soy as well.

 

In South Dakota, soy yield is expected to be higher than the USDA's estimate, at 38 bushels/acre. Plant maturity is lagging the normal pace, but moisture supplies are more than adequate for the crop, Pro Farmer said.