August 24, 2007

 

Low feed demand in China indicates high pork prices would linger

 

 

High mortality rates from diseases, previous losses and low prices last year had discouraged farmers from raising pigs, meaning it could be many months before China's pig population recovers, experts said.

 

Demand for the compound feed favoured by small farmers fell by 30 percent to 40 percent in the first half of the year, according to Kong Pingtao, vice secretary-general of the Chinese Association of Animal Science and Veterinary Medicine.

 

Numerous farmers have not returned to pig raising and it could be May of next year before feed demand returns to normal, Kong said.

 

The virus is different from the one that causes the conventional blue-ear disease, Zhang Zhongqiu, deputy head of the Agriculture Ministry's veterinary department, told a news conference.

 

China's version of the PRRS makes it more pathogenic with a higher mortality rate, which can be 100 percent for one-month-old piglets in some places. The death rate for piglets two to three months old can be over 50 percent.

 

The threat is large enough to deter would-be pig farmers.

 

The conventional strain of the disease kills 15 to 30 percent of infected piglets.

 

The higher threat level means pork prices, which have nearly doubled from levels a year ago, could stay high for some time.

 

Although it may seem China's pork prices have doubled, the unusually low pork prices last year would have to be taken into account.

 

Authorities also denied China would be mass-importing pork to quell high prices domestically.